Buizza (2025) The THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble and subseasonal-to-seasonal ensembles

Identification

• Journal: Elsevier eBooks
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-14
• Authors: Roberto Buizza
• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00001-4

Research Groups

• Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

Short Summary

This chapter defines key terms and concepts related to global medium-range, subseasonal, and seasonal prediction, emphasizing the use of Earth-system models and ensembles for reliable and accurate forecasts.

Objective

• To define key terms and discuss global medium-range, subseasonal, and seasonal prediction, and how ensembles can improve forecast reliability and accuracy.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global; Earth-system models simulate atmosphere (up to 80 km height), land, ocean, and sea-ice components.
• Temporal Scale: Medium-range, subseasonal, and seasonal prediction.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Earth-system models simulating atmosphere, land surface, ocean waves and dynamical currents, and sea ice. Ensembles (ENSs) are used for prediction.
• Data sources: Not explicitly detailed in this excerpt, but the context implies initial-value problems for prediction.

Main Results

• Global medium-range, subseasonal, and seasonal prediction is an initial-value problem requiring Earth-system models.
• Earth-system models for these predictions typically include atmosphere (up to 80 km), land surface, ocean waves and currents, and sea ice components.
• Ensembles are crucial for providing reliable and accurate forecasts across these temporal scales.

Contributions

• Provides a foundational understanding and clear definitions of key terms for global medium-range, subseasonal, and seasonal prediction.
• Highlights the essential components of Earth-system models and the role of ensembles in these prediction systems.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Buizza2025THORPEX,
  author = {Buizza, Roberto},
  title = {The THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble and subseasonal-to-seasonal ensembles},
  journal = {Elsevier eBooks},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00001-4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00001-4}
}