Balmaseda et al. (2025) The role of the ocean in subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability and prediction

Identification

• Journal: Elsevier eBooks
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-14
• Authors: Magdalena Balmaseda, Charlotte A. DeMott, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Christopher D. Roberts, Aneesh C. Subramanian
• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00010-5

Research Groups

• European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom
• Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
• Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterrey, CA, United States
• University of Colorado (CU), Boulder, CO, United States

Short Summary

This chapter introduces the critical role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and prediction, emphasizing its necessity for tropical intraseasonal oscillations and posing questions about its importance in midlatitudes.

Objective

• To characterize the relevance of ocean-atmosphere coupling for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and prediction, considering different timescales and geographical regions.
• To assess the importance of representing ocean-atmosphere coupling at midlatitudes for S2S predictability and predictions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with specific focus on tropical and midlatitude regions.
• Temporal Scale: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S), intraseasonal oscillations, and short-range weather forecasting (1-10 days).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Discusses the conceptual need for coupled ocean-atmosphere models for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, contrasting with uncoupled atmosphere-land models with prescribed sea surface temperature. No specific models are detailed as being used in this chapter.
• Data sources: Not specified in the provided text.

Main Results

• Ocean-atmosphere coupling is crucial for subseasonal forecasts in the tropics, particularly for simulating and predicting tropical intraseasonal oscillations.
• The importance of representing ocean-atmosphere coupling at midlatitudes for subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability and predictions is an active area of inquiry.
• The ocean forces the atmosphere primarily through sea surface temperature, influencing atmospheric variability.

Contributions

• Provides a conceptual framework for understanding the relevance of coupling between Earth system components (atmosphere and ocean) for different forecast timescales.
• Highlights the established necessity of ocean-atmosphere coupling for tropical subseasonal forecasts and identifies the midlatitude coupling as a key area of ongoing research.

Funding

• Not mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Balmaseda2025role,
  author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena and DeMott, Charlotte A. and Reynolds, Carolyn A. and Roberts, Christopher D. and Subramanian, Aneesh C.},
  title = {The role of the ocean in subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability and prediction},
  journal = {Elsevier eBooks},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00010-5},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00010-5}
}