Ghil et al. (2025) Extratropical subseasonal-to-seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: the dynamical systems view

Identification

• Journal: Elsevier eBooks
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-14
• Authors: Michael Ghil, Erik Chavez, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson
• DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00018-x

Research Groups

• Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure and PSL Research University, Paris, France
• Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
• Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
• Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
• Independent Researcher, Greifswald, Mecklenburg, Germany
• Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States

Short Summary

This chapter introduces the challenges of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, framing extratropical oscillations and multiple regimes from a dynamical systems perspective, and highlighting S2S as the most difficult prediction problem.

Objective

• To analyze extratropical low-frequency variability (LFV) on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales through a dynamical systems lens, emphasizing the unique challenges of intermediate-term prediction.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Extratropical atmosphere.
• Temporal Scale: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S), ranging from approximately 10 days to 100 days.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: The text refers to a "modeling hierarchy and successive bifurcations" and a "dynamical systems view," implying theoretical and conceptual frameworks rather than specific numerical models.
• Data sources: The text mentions "theoretical and observational studies" in general, but no specific data sources (e.g., satellite, reanalysis) are detailed within the provided excerpt.

Main Results

• Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction is identified as the most challenging prediction problem, requiring consideration of both initial and boundary conditions.
• S2S timescales (10 to 100 days) involve intrinsic atmospheric low-frequency variability (LFV) and interactions with the upper ocean, land surface, and stratosphere.
• Extratropical atmospheric LFV has been historically described through episodic (multiple weather/flow regimes) and dynamical systems approaches.

Contributions

• The article positions S2S prediction within a dynamical systems framework, offering a conceptual understanding of its complexity.
• It underscores the intermediate nature of S2S prediction, bridging short-term weather and long-term climate, and the associated difficulties.

Funding

Not mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ghil2025Extratropical,
  author = {Ghil, Michael and Chavez, Erik and Groth, Andreas and Kondrashov, Dmitri and Robertson, Andrew W.},
  title = {Extratropical subseasonal-to-seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: the dynamical systems view},
  journal = {Elsevier eBooks},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00018-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-443-31538-1.00018-x}
}