Bundy et al. (2025) Derecho impacts on United States crop condition ratings and yield

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-29
• Authors: Logan R. Bundy, Kristie N. Kaminski, Alex M. Haberlie, Walker S. Ashley, Vittorio A. Gensini
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110913

Research Groups

• Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, United States
• Guy Carpenter, Chicago, IL, United States

Short Summary

This study quantifies the impacts of derechos on corn and soybean conditions and modeled yield across the United States over a nine-year period (2015–2023), revealing significant declines comparable to hurricane impacts, with vulnerability influenced by wind speed, crop stage, and pre-storm conditions.

Objective

• To assess changes in corn and soybean conditions and modeled yield in the United States due to derecho impacts over a nine-year period (2015–2023).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: United States, with a focus on county-level impacts and the Corn Belt region.
• Temporal Scale: Nine-year period (2015–2023), utilizing weekly crop condition data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A storm-tracking algorithm was employed to identify derecho footprints. Yield modeling was performed, though specific model names are not provided.
• Data sources: Severe convective wind reports, weekly USDA crop condition data.

Main Results

• Derechos caused county-level yield declines as severe as 37 %.
• Overall, 75 % of corn- and soybean-producing counties affected by a derecho experienced a subsequent decline in crop conditions.
• Crop areas that experienced reported wind gusts ≥120 kph (approximately 33.3 m/s) were more likely to exhibit condition declines.
• The magnitude of crop degradation generally increased as crops progressed through vegetative and reproductive stages.
• For corn, condition vulnerability was amplified when severe wind gusts coincided with late-season drought or excessive wetness.
• Impacts from derechos were largely governed by pre-derecho crop conditions; crops in suboptimal condition prior to a derecho were more likely to improve if the storm delivered sufficient precipitation to relieve antecedent stress.

Contributions

• Provides comprehensive ground-truth information for stakeholders to make data-driven decisions for agricultural management, preparedness, and targeted intervention.
• Expands the understanding of how derechos impact corn and soybean conditions and yield, particularly in light of projected increases in derecho frequency under future climate scenarios.
• Offers a quantitative assessment of derecho impacts on crop conditions and yield, highlighting their severity relative to other extreme weather events like hurricanes.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Bundy2025Derecho,
  author = {Bundy, Logan R. and Kaminski, Kristie N. and Haberlie, Alex M. and Ashley, Walker S. and Gensini, Vittorio A.},
  title = {Derecho impacts on United States crop condition ratings and yield},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110913},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110913}
}