Liu et al. (2025) Critical snowpack thresholds and escalating risks for extreme decreases in vegetation productivity across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-16
• Authors: Hao Liu, Pengfeng Xiao, Xueliang Zhang, Xin Miao, Bo Tang, Yantao Liu, Siyong Chen, Gareth Rees, Weimin Ju
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110992

Research Groups

• Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Advanced Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
• Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
• School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
• Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1ER, United Kingdom
• International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of varying snowpack changes on extreme decreases in vegetation productivity (EDVP) across the Northern Hemisphere, revealing that over 30% snowpack decrease events are linked to EDVP in about 10% of the NH, primarily due to snowpack's moisture effect.

Objective

• To investigate the impact of different levels of snowpack changes on extreme decreases in vegetation productivity (EDVP) and identify the roles of various ecological processes of snowpack changes across the Northern Hemisphere.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern Hemisphere
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis of snowpack decrease events and future projections up to approximately 2083 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: The study utilizes the SSP5-8.5 scenario, implying the use of climate model projections, but no specific land surface or hydrological models developed or used by the authors are explicitly mentioned in the provided text.
• Data sources: Analysis of snow water equivalent (SWE) and vegetation productivity dynamics, likely derived from satellite observations and/or reanalysis products.

Main Results

• Over 30% of snowpack decrease events are followed by extreme decreases in vegetation productivity (EDVP) events in approximately 10% of Northern Hemisphere areas (p < 0.05).
• This link is primarily attributed to snowpack’s moisture effect, which alters soil moisture.
• The response of EDVP to snowpack changes increases rapidly when snow water equivalent (SWE) is –0.85 standard deviations (σ) below the mean, peaking at –1.33σ.
• Vegetation in warm and dry regions, particularly grasslands, exhibits higher vulnerability to decreased SWE.
• The resistance of vegetation to decreased SWE significantly increases with increasing precipitation.
• The future risk of EDVP occurrence is projected to significantly increase in more regions due to decreased snowpack, with approximately 8% of Northern Hemisphere areas experiencing EDVP annually after approximately 2083 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Contributions

• Identifies critical snowpack thresholds for extreme decreases in vegetation productivity (EDVP) across the Northern Hemisphere.
• Quantifies the impact of different levels of snowpack changes on EDVP and highlights the dominant role of snowpack's moisture effect.
• Provides insights into regional vulnerabilities of vegetation (e.g., warm/dry regions, grasslands) and the mitigating role of precipitation.
• Projects future risks of EDVP under a high-emission climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), offering crucial information for ecological risk assessment.
• Contributes to a better understanding of snowpack-vegetation interactions, aiding in projecting and mitigating the ecological consequences of snowpack changes.

Funding

[No funding information was provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Liu2025Critical,
  author = {Liu, Hao and Xiao, Pengfeng and Zhang, Xueliang and Miao, Xin and Tang, Bo and Liu, Yantao and Chen, Siyong and Rees, Gareth and Ju, Weimin},
  title = {Critical snowpack thresholds and escalating risks for extreme decreases in vegetation productivity across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110992},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110992}
}