Wu et al. (2025) Assessing the real impact of inter-provincial grain trade on water and land resources within China via a modified framework

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-10
• Authors: Nan Wu, Jan Adamowski, Mengyang Wu, En Hua, Yubao Wang, Shikun Sun, Xinchun Cao
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109960

Research Groups

• College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, PR China
• Department of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, McGill University, Québec, Canada
• College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, PR China
• Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, PR China

Short Summary

This study developed a modified framework to assess the real impact of inter-provincial grain trade on water and land resources in China by incorporating irrigation's yield-enhancing effects. It found that existing frameworks significantly underestimate virtual blue water and arable land flows, leading to erroneous trade evaluations and policy guidance.

Objective

• To develop and apply a modified framework for evaluating virtual water and land resource flows in inter-provincial grain trade, specifically incorporating the yield-enhancing effects of irrigation under arable land constraints in China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Thirty-one provinces in mainland China.
• Temporal Scale: 2005–2015.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Linear optimization model (for inter-provincial grain trade matrix), consumption statistics method.
• Data sources: China Statistical Yearbook (2006-2016), China Water Resources Bulletin, irrigation district management stations, National Centre for Irrigation and Drainage Development of the Ministry of Water Resources, China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, Institute of Agricultural Irrigation of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

Main Results

• Irrigated agriculture in China is significantly more efficient, with land productivity 2.18-fold greater and water productivity 1.32-fold greater than rainfed agriculture.
• From 2005 to 2015, China's inter-provincial grain trade volume increased from 41.74 Teragrams to 96.46 Teragrams.
• Inter-provincial virtual water flows increased from 45.94 × 10^9 m³ to 98.80 × 10^9 m³, with virtual blue water comprising 63.5% of the total.
• Virtual land flows increased from 3.64 × 10^6 hectares to 9.35 × 10^6 hectares.
• Virtual water wastage decreased from 8.24 × 10^9 m³ to 3.79 × 10^9 m³.
• Virtual land wastage increased from 1.81 × 10^6 hectares to 4.22 × 10^6 hectares.
• Existing frameworks, by neglecting irrigation, underestimated virtual blue water flows by 54.2% in 2005 and 42.9% in 2015, and also underestimated virtual green water and arable land losses.

Contributions

• Developed a novel virtual water and land trade evaluation framework that integrates irrigation's yield-enhancing effects under arable land constraints, providing a more realistic assessment than previous models.
• Quantified the significant underestimation of virtual blue water and arable land flows and wastage in China's inter-provincial grain trade by existing frameworks.
• Offers a direct policy-relevant paradigm for agricultural layout optimization, irrigation development, and water resource management, supporting strategic choices for resource redistribution and sustainable development.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (52479038, 52309049)
• Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20221504, BK20230969)
• Fundamental Research for the Central Universities (No. B240205046)

Citation

@article{Wu2025Assessing,
  author = {Wu, Nan and Adamowski, Jan and Wu, Mengyang and Hua, En and Wang, Yubao and Sun, Shikun and Cao, Xinchun},
  title = {Assessing the real impact of inter-provincial grain trade on water and land resources within China via a modified framework},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109960},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109960}
}