Deng et al. (2025) Optimizing winter wheat resilience with drought-crop modeling in the Tarim River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Anni Deng, Xiayang Yu, Ning Yao, Jian Liu, Qiang Yu, Hao Feng, Pingan Jiang, Xiaotao Hu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110027

Research Groups

• College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering/Key Lab of Agricultural Water and Soil Engineering of Education Ministry, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi, PR China
• College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, PR China
• College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Yangling, Shaanxi, PR China
• College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, PR China

Short Summary

This study quantifies drought-induced yield-reduction risks for winter wheat in the Tarim River Basin by integrating drought indices (SPEI, SMDI) with the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. It proposes adaptive water management strategies, including optimized sowing dates and supplemental irrigation (30–60 mm) at the jointing stage, to enhance regional winter wheat productivity and provide guidance for efficient agricultural water use in arid regions.

Objective

• To systematically establish an agricultural drought assessment methodology and compare the characteristics of different drought indices (SPEI, SMDI) in identifying the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in the Tarim River Basin.
• To quantify the risk of winter wheat yield reduction under different drought indices, determine the response of winter wheat to various drought conditions, and propose adaptive management measures and counterstrategies to mitigate agricultural drought impacts.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China (73°10′–96°23′ E, 34°55′–43°08′ N), covering 16 meteorological stations and 9 agrometeorological stations.
• Temporal Scale: 1981 to 2021 (41 years), with analysis divided into four decades: 1980s (1981–1990), 1990s (1991–2000), 2000s (2001–2010), and 2010s (2011–2020).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for simulating winter wheat growth and yield.
  • Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological drought assessment.
  • Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) at 0–10 cm and 10–40 cm depths for agricultural drought assessment.
• Data sources:
  • Meteorological data: Daily precipitation, sunshine duration, wind speed, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and mean relative humidity from 16 meteorological stations (1981–2021), obtained from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Historical drought events from the Xinjiang volume of the Encyclopedia of Meteorological Disasters in China.
  • Soil moisture data: Monthly soil moisture content at 0–10 cm and 10–40 cm depths from GLDAS-2 Noah land surface model simulations (0.25° spatial resolution). Soil physical parameters (wilting point, field capacity, bulk density) from the National Earth System Science Data Center of Cold and Arid Regions.
  • Crop data: Observed phenological and yield data for winter wheat from 9 agrometeorological stations (2000–2013), obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the National Meteorological Science Data Centre.

Main Results

• The Tarim River Basin experienced persistent drought from 1984–1987 and alternating wet-dry conditions from 2002–2011, with drought frequency ranging from 4 to 12 events.
• Drought duration and severity followed the order SPEI < SMDI0–10 < SMDI10–40 (median duration: 207 < 219 < 220 months; median severity: 239 < 344 < 378 units), with higher values in Kashgar and Aksu.
• The SMDI demonstrated greater consistency with documented historical drought events and identified more severe winter wheat yield reductions compared to SPEI.
• The DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model showed good performance, with R² values for anthesis date, maturity date, and yield ranging from 0.61 to 0.71, and RRMSE values generally below 20%.
• Winter wheat phenological phases (flowering and maturity) consistently shortened from the 1980s to the 2010s across all stations.
• Winter wheat yield reductions were more pronounced during SMDI-identified drought years, with losses reaching 40–50% at Baicheng and Hotan stations.
• Adaptive strategies:
  • Sowing date optimization: Optimal sowing dates varied by location, with some stations benefiting from a 5-day advance (Aksu, Kashgar), others from conventional dates (Bachu, Shache, Hotan, Kuqa), and some from delays of 5 to 15 days (Baicheng, Ruoqiang, Yutian).
  • Irrigation optimization: Applying an additional 30 mm or 60 mm of irrigation during the jointing stage (Scenarios 1 or 4) under baseline conditions significantly mitigated drought-induced yield reduction risks. Scenario 6 (30 mm at jointing + 30 mm at heading) achieved the maximum reduction in yield loss rate (5-15 percentage points) for SPEI-identified droughts. For SMDI-identified droughts, Scenario 4 (60 mm at jointing) showed higher potential for most stations.

Contributions

• Established a robust agricultural drought assessment methodology by integrating multi-scale meteorological (SPEI) and agricultural (SMDI) drought indices, demonstrating SMDI's superior effectiveness in diagnosing direct agricultural drought impacts in arid, irrigation-dominated regions.
• Quantified winter wheat yield reduction risks under different drought types and developed location-specific adaptive management strategies, including optimized sowing dates and targeted supplemental irrigation during critical growth stages.
• Provided a scientific basis and practical guidance for efficient agricultural water resource utilization and enhanced drought risk management for winter wheat production in the Tarim River Basin and other arid regions globally.

Funding

• Major Science and Technology Project of Xinjiang Autonomous Region (2023A02002-1)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (52209070)

Citation

@article{Deng2025Optimizing,
  author = {Deng, Anni and Yu, Xiayang and Yao, Ning and Liu, Jian and Yu, Qiang and Feng, Hao and Jiang, Pingan and Hu, Xiaotao},
  title = {Optimizing winter wheat resilience with drought-crop modeling in the Tarim River Basin},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110027},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110027}
}