Linhares et al. (2025) Areas susceptible to desertification in Brazil: An approach based on the frequency of annual aridity classes

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-11
• Authors: Larissa Ingrid Marques Linhares, Pedro R. Mutti, Beatriz M. Funatsu, Vincent Dubreuil, Bergson G. Bezerra, Albert Smith Feitosa Suassuna Martins, Ivanise Brito da Silva, Fernando Montes, Gabriel Víctor Silva do Nascimento, ANDERSON GONÇALVES DA SILVEIRA, Fábio Vinícius Marley Santos Lima, Valeria Souza, Itauan Dayvison Gomes de Medeiros
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108477

Research Groups

• Programa de P´os-graduaç˜ao em Ciˆencias Clim´aticas, Centro de Ciˆencias Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
• Departamento de Ciˆencias Atmosf´ericas e Clim´aticas, Centro de Ciˆencias Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
• CNRS, UMR6554 LETG, Nantes Universit´e, Universit´e Rennes 2, France
• Programa de P´os-graduaç˜ao em Geografia, Universidade Federal do Cear´a, Brazil

Short Summary

This study analyzed annual aridity class frequencies across Brazil from 1961 to 2020 using non-stationary approaches, revealing a 30% expansion of dryland conditions over the last 30 years, particularly in the Southeast and Pantanal regions, driven primarily by declining precipitation.

Objective

• To examine the year-by-year frequency of aridity classes across the entirety of Brazil from 1961 to 2020 using non-stationary approaches.
• To distinguish the relative influence of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) on observed aridity index (AI) changes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Entirety of Brazil.
• Temporal Scale: 60 years (1961 to 2020), analyzed annually.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Non-stationary approaches to analyze year-by-year aridity class frequencies based on the Aridity Index (AI = P/PET). The study also distinguished the relative influence of P and PET.
• Data sources: Climate data (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration derived from temperature) used for Aridity Index calculation.

Main Results

• An expansion of approximately 30% of dryland conditions was observed across Brazil over the past 30 years.
• This expansion extends beyond the traditionally semi-arid Northeast into the Southeast region.
• An emerging aridity hotspot was identified in the Pantanal.
• There is an increasing annual frequency of arid and semi-arid classifications, particularly in these newly affected zones.
• The observed shift towards drier climates is primarily driven by declining precipitation and secondarily by rising potential evapotranspiration (linked to temperature increases).

Contributions

• Adopts non-stationary approaches to analyze year-by-year aridity class frequencies across the entirety of Brazil, providing a more dynamic and comprehensive assessment than previous studies focused on long-term trends in specific regions.
• Distinguishes the relative contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to aridity changes, offering a nuanced understanding of the underlying climatic drivers.
• Uncovers a "creeping aridity process" through annual frequency analysis, which directly informs updated desertification risk assessments and climate adaptation strategies for Brazil.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Linhares2025Areas,
  author = {Linhares, Larissa Ingrid Marques and Mutti, Pedro R. and Funatsu, Beatriz M. and Dubreuil, Vincent and Bezerra, Bergson G. and Martins, Albert Smith Feitosa Suassuna and Silva, Ivanise Brito da and Montes, Fernando and Nascimento, Gabriel Víctor Silva do and SILVEIRA, ANDERSON GONÇALVES DA and Lima, Fábio Vinícius Marley Santos and Souza, Valeria and Medeiros, Itauan Dayvison Gomes de},
  title = {Areas susceptible to desertification in Brazil: An approach based on the frequency of annual aridity classes},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108477},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108477}
}