Deng et al. (2025) Enhanced water stress on vegetation productivity with climate warming over the Northern Hemisphere

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-20
• Authors: Mingshan Deng, Xianhong Meng, Rebecca J. Oliver, Yaqiong Lü, Bo Feng, Xuan Gui
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108639

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou, China
• Zoige Plateau Wetlands Ecosystem Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou, China
• U. K. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
• Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Science, Chengdu, China
• School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
• Hubei Key Laboratory of Critical Zone Evolution, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the inter-annual changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) in the Northern Hemisphere from 1982 to 2018, revealing that GPP trends stalled after 1998 due to enhanced atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) and that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) fail to accurately capture these changes.

Objective

• To investigate inter-annual changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and the impacts of temperature, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on GPP trends in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly exploring the causes of GPP declines/stalling in recent decades and evaluating the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern Hemisphere
• Temporal Scale: 1982 to 2018, analyzed in two periods: 1982-1998 and 1998-2018.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 8 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs).
• Data sources: Two independent remote sensing products for GPP; data on temperature, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD).

Main Results

• The gross primary productivity (GPP) trend during 1998 to 2018 tends to stall after the year 1998.
• This stalling is concurrent with a significant enhancement of a positive vapor pressure deficit (VPD) trend during 1998 to 2018, particularly in forests, grasslands, and warmer regions.
• In the Northern Hemisphere, increasing VPD plays a dominant role in weakening the GPP trend from 1998 to 2018.
• Changing soil moisture and temperature also influence GPP trends, as identified in different regional responses.
• Results from 8 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) show that these models fail to capture the inter-annual changes in GPP.
• The failure of DGVMs is likely due to an overestimation of GPP responses to soil water.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of the relative roles of atmospheric dryness (VPD), soil moisture, and temperature in driving GPP trends in the Northern Hemisphere.
• Identifies the dominant role of increasing VPD in the observed stalling of GPP trends after 1998.
• Highlights significant limitations of current DGVMs in simulating GPP responses to water stress, particularly concerning soil water, offering crucial insights for future model improvements.

Funding

[No funding information was provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Deng2025Enhanced,
  author = {Deng, Mingshan and Meng, Xianhong and Oliver, Rebecca J. and Lü, Yaqiong and Feng, Bo and Gui, Xuan},
  title = {Enhanced water stress on vegetation productivity with climate warming over the Northern Hemisphere},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108639},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108639}
}

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