Chen et al. (2025) Causes of an extreme rainfall in Dubai on April 16th, 2024

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-22
• Authors: Baoxu Chen, Hongyan Cui, Ziqun Zhang, Fangli Qiao, Xiaohui Sun, Chang Gao, X. R. Meng, Changshui Xia
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108651

Research Groups

• College of Mathematics and Physics, Qingdao University of Science and Technology
• The First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources
• Shandong Engineering Research Center for Marine Scenarized Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology
• Qingdao Innovation Center of Artificial Intelligence Ocean Technology
• College of Mathematical Science, Harbin Engineering University

Short Summary

This study investigates the causes of the extreme rainfall event in Dubai on April 16th, 2024, identifying anomalous vertical convection, driven by strong updrafts and a specific atmospheric circulation pattern, as the primary mechanism, termed the "Chimney effect."

Objective

• To investigate the causes and mechanisms behind the record-breaking extreme rainfall event in Dubai on April 16th, 2024, and define the associated "Chimney effect."

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and surrounding regions including the Arabian Peninsula and the northern Indian Ocean.
• Temporal Scale: Focus on April 16th, 2024, with atmospheric circulation anomalies tracked from April 8th, 2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Moisture budget analysis, atmospheric circulation analysis.
• Data sources: Atmospheric reanalysis data (implied from the analysis of atmospheric circulation, moisture, and convection).

Main Results

• Dubai experienced a record-breaking total precipitation of 132.21 mm on April 16th, 2024, with a precipitation rate of 128.86 mm/day.
• The primary driver for this event was anomalous vertical convection (7.46 mm/day), mainly contributed by anomalous updrafts exceeding 1.5 Pa/s.
• Climatological zonal convection had the largest inhibiting impact on rainfall, contributing −7.07 mm/day.
• Anomalous atmospheric circulation signals, characterized by anomalous westerlies to the south of Dubai, were identified 8 days prior to the event (April 8th).
• This consistent phenomenon, accompanied by anomalous northerlies on April 14th, resulted in a low-pressure center over Dubai on April 16th, exhibiting low-level convergence and upper-level divergence, which was termed the "Chimney effect."
• An increase in sea surface temperature in the northern Indian Ocean facilitated the transfer of moisture to Dubai.
• Robust updrafts from 1000 hPa to 200 hPa over Dubai on April 16th lifted warm, humid air from the Indian Ocean, leading to heavy rainfall.

Contributions

• Defines and characterizes the "Chimney effect" as a specific mechanism for extreme rainfall in arid regions, driven by intense low-pressure systems and robust updrafts.
• Provides a detailed moisture budget analysis and atmospheric circulation analysis to explain the specific extreme rainfall event in Dubai.
• Highlights the critical role of anomalous vertical convection and specific large-scale circulation patterns in triggering extreme precipitation in an arid environment.
• Emphasizes the broader implications for infrastructure resilience in arid regions facing increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Chen2025Causes,
  author = {Chen, Baoxu and Cui, Hongyan and Zhang, Ziqun and Qiao, Fangli and Sun, Xiaohui and Gao, Chang and Meng, X. R. and Xia, Changshui},
  title = {Causes of an extreme rainfall in Dubai on April 16th, 2024},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108651},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108651}
}