Bragina et al. (2025) Predictability of temperature anomalies in Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean in June 2024 based on seasonal forecasts of the INM RAS Earth system model

Identification

• Journal: Atmospheric Research
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-12
• Authors: Vasilisa Bragina, Evgeny Volodin, Maria Tarasevich, Pavel Vargin, Valentina Khan, Ksenia Sumerova
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108700

Research Groups

• Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the RAS
• Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russian Federation
• Central Aerological Observatory
• A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Russian Academy of Sciences

Short Summary

This study investigates the predictability of the June 2024 heatwave in Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean using seasonal forecasts from the INM RAS Earth system model (INMCM6M), identifying reduced soil moisture and increased meridional warm air transport as key contributing factors.

Objective

• To study the predictability of tropospheric temperature anomalies in Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean for June 2024 based on ensemble seasonal forecasts.
• To identify the primary causes of the observed extreme heatwave in this region, including the roles of soil moisture and atmospheric transport.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southeast Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, central Volga region, north-east of European Russia (north-westward of Ural Mountains).
• Temporal Scale: June 2024 (for the heatwave event), preceding months (for soil moisture accumulation), seasonal forecasts.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: INM RAS Earth system model (INMCM6M)
• Data sources: Ensemble seasonal forecasts from INMCM6M, observational data (for analysis of meridional transport).

Main Results

• The INMCM6M model demonstrated predictability for the June 2024 heatwave in Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean.
• Reduced accumulation of soil moisture during preceding months and subsequent reduced cooling of the lower troposphere due to evaporation stress were identified as major contributors to the heatwave.
• Observational data analysis indicated increased meridional transport of warm air masses, particularly in the first half of June 2024, along the western edge of the heatwave region towards the central Volga region and north-east European Russia.
• Model experiments suggest that this meridional transport of air masses from warmer regions to the north, rather than extreme local warming in the Eastern Mediterranean, was the primary driver for positive temperature anomalies in the north-east of European Russia.

Contributions

• Provides a timely assessment of seasonal predictability for a recent, high-impact heatwave event (June 2024) using a specific Earth system model.
• Identifies and quantifies the relative importance of specific physical mechanisms (soil moisture deficit, meridional advection) in the formation and propagation of the heatwave.
• Offers insights into the interplay between local conditions and large-scale atmospheric transport in shaping regional extreme temperature anomalies.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Bragina2025Predictability,
  author = {Bragina, Vasilisa and Volodin, Evgeny and Tarasevich, Maria and Vargin, Pavel and Khan, Valentina and Sumerova, Ksenia},
  title = {Predictability of temperature anomalies in Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean in June 2024 based on seasonal forecasts of the INM RAS Earth system model},
  journal = {Atmospheric Research},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108700},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108700}
}