Li et al. (2025) Climate change outweighs vegetation restoration in shaping water availability in humid karst watersheds

Identification

• Journal: CATENA
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-24
• Authors: Xiaohan Li, Shilei Peng, Chaohao Xu, Dong Yang, Kelin Wang, Xianli Xu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2025.109680

Research Groups

• Huanjiang Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, Guangxi Key Laboratory of Karst Ecological Processes and Services, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha 410125, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
• School of Environmental and Life Sciences, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China
• Jiangxi Academy of Eco-Environmental Sciences & Planning, Nanchang 330029, China

Short Summary

This study developed a new karst-based ecohydrological model to assess the impact of vegetation restoration on water availability in humid karst watersheds. It found that precipitation is the dominant driver of water availability, with vegetation restoration having a limited effect, suggesting afforestation is unlikely to cause water scarcity under current climatic conditions.

Objective

• To determine whether large-scale vegetation restoration projects compromise water availability in humid karst systems, where precipitation is abundant yet rapidly lost.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Six typical karst watersheds in southwestern China.
• Temporal Scale: Study period (not explicitly defined in the provided text), with analysis of greening trends since the 2000s.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A new karst-based ecohydrological model.
• Data sources: Observational data for model validation (streamflow, evapotranspiration, gross primary production, leaf area index).

Main Results

• Simulated water availability (WA) did not exhibit significant changes during the study period, despite substantial greening areas since the 2000s.
• Precipitation was identified as the dominant driver controlling WA dynamics, contributing 84.6 %–117.6 %.
• Vegetation restoration had a limited impact on WA (−8.0 %–3.8 %) due to energy constraints and repaid subsurface recharge.
• The model performed well in simulating streamflow (Kling-Gupta Efficiency: 0.67–0.79), evapotranspiration (0.70–0.82), gross primary production (0.62–0.77), and leaf area index (0.72–0.86).
• Afforestation is unlikely to trigger water scarcity in humid karst regions under current climatic conditions, though projected drying trends may increase future risks.

Contributions

• Developed and applied a novel karst-based ecohydrological model for humid karst systems.
• Advanced the understanding of coupled ecology–hydrology interactions in complex karst landscapes.
• Provided a practical tool and insights for guiding sustainable water management and ecological restoration strategies.
• Offered evidence that afforestation may not lead to water scarcity in humid karst regions under current climate, challenging existing concerns.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Li2025Climate,
  author = {Li, Xiaohan and Peng, Shilei and Xu, Chaohao and Yang, Dong and Wang, Kelin and Xu, Xianli},
  title = {Climate change outweighs vegetation restoration in shaping water availability in humid karst watersheds},
  journal = {CATENA},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.catena.2025.109680},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2025.109680}
}