Zhao et al. (2025) Quantifying glacier and snow shrinkage: future water stress in Northern Tien Shan, Central Asia

Identification

• Journal: CATENA
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-15
• Authors: Qiudong Zhao, Yongjian Ding, Zizhen Jin, Yan Qin, Rui He, Donghui Shangguan, Shiqiang Zhang, Yaping Chang, Han Hai-dong
• DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2025.109734

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
• Tanggula Mountain Cryosphere and Environment Observation and Research Station of Tibet Autonomous Region, Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Department of Geography, Xinzhou Normal University, Xinzhou, China
• College of Geography and Remote sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China
• College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi’an, China

Short Summary

This study assesses the impacts of glacier and snow shrinkage on hydrological processes and water stress in the Northern Tien Shan using a refined VIC-CAS model. Projections indicate significant decreases in snowmelt runoff, annual streamflow, and soil moisture by the late 21st century, intensifying water scarcity and hydrological droughts.

Objective

• To assess the impacts of glacier and snow meltwater changes on soil moisture and hydrological processes in six glacierized basins of the Northern Tien Shan under global warming.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Six glacierized river basins in the Northern Tien Shan, Central Asia.
• Temporal Scale: Projections for the 21st century, with specific focus on the late century (2080–2100) and mid-century (2060s).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: VIC-CAS (glacier-expanded Variable Infiltration Capacity model), refined by improving the glacier-melt algorithm and incorporating a snowmelt pathway-tracking scheme.
• Data sources: Remote-sensing snow/glacier data and observed streamflow for model calibration and validation.

Main Results

• By 2080–2100, snowmelt runoff is projected to decrease by one-third to two-thirds due to decreasing snowfall.
• In the Bayingou River Basin (BRB), glacier runoff will increase until the 2060s, while in the other five basins, glacier runoff will decline substantially after surpassing tipping points.
• Annual streamflow in basins with declining glacier runoff will decrease by one-fourth by the late 21st century, whereas the BRB shows little change.
• Summer streamflow will decline by over one-third in basins with declining glacier runoff and by nearly 10 % in the BRB, exacerbating water scarcity.
• Annual mean soil moisture in mountainous areas above 2000 m is projected to decrease by 10.5–16.3 % by the late century, with a more substantial decrease of 12.4–20 % during July–September.
• Continued glacier and snow shrinkage will intensify hydrological and ecological droughts, posing major challenges for water resource management.

Contributions

• Development and application of a refined VIC-CAS model, incorporating an improved glacier-melt algorithm and a snowmelt pathway-tracking scheme, for assessing cryospheric hydrological impacts.
• Comprehensive assessment of future glacier and snow shrinkage impacts on water resources, soil moisture, and hydrological processes across multiple glacierized basins in the Northern Tien Shan.
• Identification of differential glacier runoff responses (e.g., Bayingou River Basin vs. other basins) and their implications for regional water stress.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhao2025Quantifying,
  author = {Zhao, Qiudong and Ding, Yongjian and Jin, Zizhen and Qin, Yan and He, Rui and Shangguan, Donghui and Zhang, Shiqiang and Chang, Yaping and Hai-dong, Han},
  title = {Quantifying glacier and snow shrinkage: future water stress in Northern Tien Shan, Central Asia},
  journal = {CATENA},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.catena.2025.109734},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2025.109734}
}