Peng et al. (2025) Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on the SPEI

Identification

• Journal: Climate Services
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-01
• Authors: Yong Peng, Qiao Li, Pingan Jiang, Ning Yao, Hongfei Tao, Mahemujiang Aihemaiti
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100615

Research Groups

• College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
• Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
• College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
• College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China

Short Summary

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics and abrupt changes of meteorological drought in the Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2022 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). It found complex trends in temperature, precipitation, and SPEI, with an overall decrease in annual drought severity but an increase in seasonal drought severity, and identified light drought as the predominant type.

Objective

• To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and abrupt changes of temperature, precipitation, SPEI (SPEI-3 and SPEI-12), and key meteorological drought variables (frequency, station ratio, and intensity) in the Tarim River Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tarim River Basin, an arid inland region in northwest China, located in the southern part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, with a total basin area of 1.02 x 10^6 square kilometers.
• Temporal Scale: 23-year period from 2000 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) calculated using the Thornthwaite method for potential evapotranspiration (PET). Climate inclination rate method, Mann-Kendall abrupt test method, and spatial interpolation method were used for trend and spatial analysis.
• Data sources: Average monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation data from 13 meteorological stations within the Tarim River Basin, sourced from the National Environmental Information Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Main Results

• Temperature Trends: Spring temperature increased by 0.4 °C per decade, while annual, summer, autumn, and growing season temperatures showed declining trends (e.g., autumn decreased by -0.3 °C per decade). Abrupt changes were identified in annual (2010), autumn (2011), and growing season (2017) temperatures. Spatially, temperature inclination rates generally increased from eastern to central regions.
• Precipitation Trends: Annual and seasonal average precipitation showed increasing trends (e.g., annual by 18.2 mm per decade, growing season by 9.2 mm per decade). Abrupt changes were identified in annual (2015), autumn (2014), and growing season (2013) precipitation. Spatially, precipitation inclination rates generally increased from southern to northern regions.
• SPEI Trends: Annual SPEI-12 showed an upward trend (0.14 per decade), indicating a decrease in annual drought severity. Seasonal SPEI-3 showed downward trends (e.g., spring decreased by -0.1 per decade), indicating an increase in seasonal drought severity. Abrupt changes in SPEI were observed in annual (2016), spring (2006), summer (2010), and autumn (2014). Spatially, SPEI inclination rates generally increased from southwest to northeast.
• Drought Frequency: The annual drought frequency was 24.75%, with the highest frequency in summer (28.09%) and the lowest in the growing season (20.40%). Light, moderate, severe, and extreme droughts occurred in spring, summer, and autumn, but no extreme droughts were recorded on an annual scale or during the growing season.
• Drought Station Ratio and Intensity: The drought station ratio showed an increasing trend across all seasons and annually (e.g., annual by 0.99% per decade, spring by 9.96% per decade). Drought intensity increased annually (0.04 per decade) and in spring (0.18 per decade), but decreased in summer (-0.18 per decade), autumn (-0.14 per decade), and the growing season (-0.03 per decade). Light drought was the main type of drought throughout the year and across all seasons.

Contributions

• Provides a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin using the SPEI index, which was less commonly applied in this specific region compared to other indices.
• Offers a scientific basis and theoretical support for rational water resource planning, drought resistance, and disaster reduction in the Tarim River Basin.
• Serves as a foundational tool for promoting sustainable development and enhancing the adaptive capacity of the Tarim River Basin amidst increasing environmental challenges.

Funding

• Major Science and Technology Projects of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2023A02002-1)
• Youth Science Fund Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Natural Science Foundation (2022D01B86)
• Basic Research Funds for Universities in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XJEDU2022J008)

Citation

@article{Peng2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Peng, Yong and Li, Qiao and Jiang, Pingan and Yao, Ning and Tao, Hongfei and Aihemaiti, Mahemujiang},
  title = {Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on the SPEI},
  journal = {Climate Services},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100615},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100615}
}