Zareian et al. (2025) Adapting to dryness: Two decades of agricultural transformation in Iran’s arid zone through the water-energy-food-carbon lens

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-20
• Authors: Mohammad Javad Zareian, Hossein Dehban, Alireza Gohari
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102950

Research Groups

• Department Water Resources Study and Research, Water Research Institute (WRI), Tehran, Iran
• Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
• Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran

Short Summary

This study analyzed agricultural transformations in Iran's Isfahan Province (2004–2023) using the Water-Energy-Food-Carbon (WEFC) Nexus framework, revealing that declining groundwater availability, rather than meteorological drought, drove shifts towards water-efficient, high-value crops, improving water productivity and reducing environmental footprints despite a decrease in total cultivated area.

Objective

• To investigate long-term agricultural trends (2004–2023) in Isfahan Province, Iran, using the Water-Energy-Food-Carbon (WEFC) Nexus framework, by analyzing key agricultural indicators (cultivated area, crop yield, water productivity, economic efficiency, energy use, and carbon emissions) and their interactions with hydroclimatic drivers (Standardized Precipitation Evapotpotranspiration Index (SPEI), groundwater extraction, and surface water reservoir releases).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Isfahan Province, central Iran (predominantly arid to semi-arid region).
• Temporal Scale: 20 years (2004–2023).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Water-Energy-Food-Carbon (WEFC) Nexus framework
  • Nexus-based indices: Crop per Drop Index (CPD), Land Productivity Index (LPI), Benefit per Drop Index (BPD), Energy Use Index (EUI), Carbon Emission Intensity Index (CEII), Total Production Index (TPI).
  • Hydroclimate driving indices: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (calculated using Thornthwaite method), Water released from reservoirs, Groundwater extraction.
  • Statistical methods: Mann–Kendall test (for trend analysis), Theil–Sen estimator (for trend magnitude), Pearson correlation analysis.
• Data sources:
  • Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, Iran (cultivated area, crop yield, irrigation efficiency values).
  • National NetWat database (net crop water requirements).
  • Published literature (reference values for energy consumption and carbon emissions per hectare).
  • Statistical Center of Iran (market prices of crops, adjusted to 2023 values).
  • Iranian Meteorological Organization (WMO) (meteorological variables from 23 synoptic stations for SPEI calculation).
  • Iran Water Resources Management Company (IWRMC) (water releases from reservoirs, groundwater extraction).

Main Results

• Groundwater extraction decreased by 36%, leading to a 14% reduction in total cultivated area.
• Farmers adapted by shifting to high-value, water-efficient crops (e.g., onion, silage maize expanded; wheat, potato declined).
• Water use efficiency improved: Crop per Drop Index (CPD) increased by 21%.
• Environmental pressures reduced: Energy Use Index (EUI) declined by 18%, and Carbon Emission Intensity Index (CEII) decreased by 23%.
• Groundwater depletion emerged as the dominant factor driving agricultural changes, showing statistically significant correlations with most Nexus-based indices and cultivated area. Meteorological drought (SPEI) showed no significant correlation.
• Economic efficiency improved: Benefit per Drop Index (BPD) and Land Productivity Index (LPI) showed statistically significant increasing trends.
• Total agricultural production showed a slight, non-significant upward trend, indicating that productivity gains did not fully offset reduced cultivated land, raising food security concerns for staple crops.

Contributions

• Provides a long-term (20-year) analysis of agricultural transformation in an arid region using the comprehensive Water-Energy-Food-Carbon (WEFC) Nexus framework.
• Integrates key agricultural indicators (water productivity, economic efficiency, energy use, carbon emissions) with major hydroclimatic drivers (SPEI, groundwater extraction, surface water releases) to statistically analyze their interactions.
• Offers new insights into the systemic relationships between resource use and environmental stress in semi-arid contexts, identifying groundwater depletion as the dominant driver of agricultural adaptation.
• Advances the application of the Nexus approach in national and regional planning, providing evidence-based perspectives for coherent and adaptive strategies in resource-constrained environments.
• Contributes to achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to zero hunger, clean water, affordable energy, responsible consumption, and climate action.

Funding

• Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) under project No. 4037489.

Citation

@article{Zareian2025Adapting,
  author = {Zareian, Mohammad Javad and Dehban, Hossein and Gohari, Alireza},
  title = {Adapting to dryness: Two decades of agricultural transformation in Iran’s arid zone through the water-energy-food-carbon lens},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102950},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102950}
}

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