Alifujiang et al. (2025) Spatiotemporal patterns and trends of meteorological drought in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-25
• Authors: Yilinuer Alifujiang, Abdugheni Abliz, Ayixiemuguli Zibibula, Ying Jiang, Ping Yang, Jianpeng Feng, Zhihui Bai, Yaping Wang, Ming Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102980

Research Groups

• College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China
• Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China
• Kizilsu Meteorological Bureau, Kizilsu, China

Short Summary

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and trends of meteorological drought in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin from 1960 to 2023 using SPI, SPEI, Pettitt test, and Modified Innovative Trend Analysis (MITA). It revealed a significant "dry west and wet east" spatial divergence, increased drought persistence, and a critical shift in drought drivers from precipitation-dominated to water-heat coupling-dominated around 1999.

Objective

• To analyze the spatiotemporal variability of SPI and SPEI across different timescales (1–12 months) to clarify the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of drought characteristics.
• To systematically examine the spatiotemporal variation patterns of SPI and SPEI at 1–12-month scales to identify key drought evolution trends and differential features.
• To comprehensively validate the accuracy and advantages of the MITA method in diagnosing nonlinear drought trends, providing methodological references for similar studies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Kaidu-Kongque River Basin (KKR), an inland river basin in Central Asia, spanning longitude 83°02′ to 92°33′ E and latitude 40°09′ to 43°43′ N, with an elevation range of 700 to 4800 meters.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term meteorological data from 1960 to 2023 (64 years), with drought indices calculated across multiple timescales (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
  • Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
  • Pettitt test (for change point detection)
  • Classical Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)
  • Modified Innovative Trend Analysis (MITA)
• Data sources: Monthly precipitation and mean temperature series from 8 meteorological stations within the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin (1960–2023).

Main Results

• Spatiotemporal Divergence: A significant "west-east differentiation" pattern was observed. Western plains (e.g., Korla, Yuli) showed intensified drought conditions with declining SPI/SPEI values, while the eastern high-altitude area (Bayinbuluk) exhibited signs of humidification but paradoxically experienced a 12% increase in the frequency of extreme drought events.
• Temporal Shifts and Critical Transition: Abrupt changes in SPI (1980–1987) occurred earlier than those in SPEI (1996–1999), with 1999 identified as a critical transition period for the hydroclimatic system.
• Enhanced Drought Persistence: SPEI indicated stronger drought persistence than SPI. The average duration of SPEI-12 drought events was 2.3 months longer than SPI-12 (e.g., 8.7 months vs. 6.4 months at Yuli station). Summer drought durations significantly prolonged after 1990, increasing by 34%.
• High-Altitude Specificity: Bayinbuluk station (high-altitude) showed non-significant SPI-3 mutations (p = 0.62) but concentrated mutations at other scales in 1999, reflecting a "coexistence of apparent wetting and intensified extreme drought risks."
• MITA Validation: The Modified Innovative Trend Analysis (MITA) method accurately identified turning points in drought trends (e.g., a shift in SPI-12 at Yuli station in 1991), quantified the proportions of drought classes (e.g., extreme drought events accounted for 7.2% of the series), and revealed the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought.

Contributions

• Developed and applied an integrated framework combining multi-scale SPI/SPEI assessment with the Pettitt test and Modified Innovative Trend Analysis (MITA) to effectively capture nonlinear drought trends and breakpoints, addressing limitations of traditional methods.
• Provided novel hydrological insights for the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin, identifying a significant "dry west and wet east" spatial differentiation and a critical shift in drought drivers from precipitation-dominated to water-heat coupling-dominated around 1999.
• Quantified the enhanced drought persistence and timescale dependence, highlighting the significant prolongation of summer drought durations after 1990.
• Validated the accuracy and advantages of the MITA method as a reliable technical tool for diagnosing complex nonlinear drought trends in arid regions with complex terrain.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSF-Regional Fund Programs (42461005)
• Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Natural Science Foundation (No. 2023D01C196)

Citation

@article{Alifujiang2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Alifujiang, Yilinuer and Abliz, Abdugheni and Zibibula, Ayixiemuguli and Jiang, Ying and Yang, Ping and Feng, Jianpeng and Bai, Zhihui and Wang, Yaping and Li, Ming},
  title = {Spatiotemporal patterns and trends of meteorological drought in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102980},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102980}
}