Ma et al. (2025) Propagation of different types of compound drought-hot events: Spatiotemporal patterns and response relationship

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-16
• Authors: Qiusheng Ma, Bingbo Ni, Zehua Li, Jiahao Sun, Qingsong Zhang, Peng Qi, Yanfeng Wu, Guangxin Zhang, Haifeng Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103031

Research Groups

• Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, China.
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
• Huanggang Polytechnic, Huanggang, China.
• Jilin Songliao Engineering Supervision Monitoring Consulting Co., Ltd, China.

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and propagation characteristics of three types of compound drought-hot events (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological) in Northeast China. The research reveals strong interdependencies between these events, with propagation lag times significantly influenced by land use, soil organic matter, and anthropogenic water management.

Objective

• To test the hypothesis that different compound drought-hot events (CDHEs) undergo typological transitions during their spatiotemporal evolution.
• To quantify the frequency, duration, intensity, and sequential propagation (lag times) between compound meteorological (CMDHE), agricultural (CADHE), and hydrological (CHDHE) drought-hot events.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northeast China (NEC), covering approximately $1.24 \times 10^6 \text{ km}^2$, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia.
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2018 (monthly resolution).

Methodology and Data

• Models and Indices:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SMI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Standardized Temperature Index (STI).
  • Standardized Drought Heatwave Index (SDHI) based on joint exceedance probabilities to identify compound events.
  • Run theory for event characterization (frequency, duration, intensity).
  • Maximum Pearson Correlation Coefficient (MPCC) to determine Drought Propagation Time (DPT).
  • Centroid tracking for spatial migration analysis.
• Data sources:
  • China Regional Surface Meteorological Elements Driving Dataset (0.1° resolution).
  • ESA CCI integrated soil moisture dataset (0.25° downscaled to 0.1°).
  • China Runoff Data (CNRD v1.0, 0.1° resolution).

Main Results

• Spatiotemporal Patterns: High-incidence areas for CMDHEs are in northern Inner Mongolia and western Jilin. CADHEs and CHDHEs are more frequent in the northern and northeastern NEC.
• Event Characteristics: The average duration of agricultural compound events (CADHEs) is approximately 20% longer than meteorological ones (CMDHEs).
• Propagation Relationships: Strong correlations exist between CDHE types, with MPCC values ranging from 0.66 to 0.91.
• Lag Times:
  • The optimal accumulation time from CMDHE to CADHE is 7–8 months across most regions.
  • The transition from CADHE to CHDHE occurs within 1–2 months in central-western croplands.
  • In northern forest–wetland zones, the CADHE-to-CHDHE transition exceeds 5 months, driven by deep organic soils and reservoir regulation.
• Spatial Migration: Centroids of CDHEs have increasingly converged toward western Jilin and central Liaoning over the last decade.

Contributions

• Provides the first systematic evaluation of the response relationships and sequential propagation between different types of compound drought-hot events (meteorological vs. agricultural vs. hydrological).
• Identifies that the propagation of compound events is not a simple linear water movement but is modulated by regional land-surface characteristics and human interventions (reservoirs).
• Offers a scientific basis for multi-disaster risk assessment and adaptive water management in a climate-sensitive grain production hub.

Funding

• Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA28100105 and XDA28020501).
• Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Plan Project (20240101058JC).
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42571038 and U2243230).
• Funding of Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IGA-135–05).

Citation

@article{Ma2025Propagation,
  author = {Ma, Qiusheng and Ni, Bingbo and Li, Zehua and Sun, Jiahao and Zhang, Qingsong and Qi, Peng and Wu, Yanfeng and Zhang, Guangxin and Li, Haifeng},
  title = {Propagation of different types of compound drought-hot events: Spatiotemporal patterns and response relationship},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103031},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103031}
}

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