Huang et al. (2025) Hydropower vulnerability to drought-flood abrupt alternation under climate change

Identification

• Journal: Energy
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-08
• Authors: Yifan Huang, Xuejin Tan, Jianyu Fu, Zhihong Deng, Bingjun Liu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.139212

Research Groups

• School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
• School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
• Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the global impact of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events on hydropower, revealing that these rapid transitions significantly reduce generation and that high reservoir regulation capacity is a key factor in mitigating these losses.

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of flood-to-drought (FDT) and drought-to-flood (DFT) transitions and evaluate their specific impacts on global hydropower generation and reservoir resilience under climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global (with specific focus on regions like East Asia and Europe).
• Temporal Scale: Decadal analysis (historical and future climate change projections).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Global hydrological simulations and a relative impact index for hydropower generation.
• Data sources: Hydrometeorological variability data, global hydrological simulation outputs, and reservoir management/regulation capacity metrics.

Main Results

• DFAA events are widespread, with FDT and DFT transitions occurring at average frequencies of 3.51 and 4.85 times per decade, respectively.
• FDT events reduce global hydropower generation by 11.53%, while DFT events cause a reduction of 9.16%.
• DFAA events typically result in more severe hydropower shortages than isolated drought or flood events.
• Reservoirs with high regulation capacity exhibit significantly higher resilience; they are 6.7% (FDT) and 14.3% (DFT) more likely to be less affected than those with low regulation capacity.
• The vulnerability is driven by the inability to maintain ideal water storage and release schedules when faced with abrupt shifts between hydrological extremes.

Contributions

• This research provides one of the first global assessments of hydropower vulnerability specifically linked to compound DFAA events.
• It quantifies the disparity in reservoir management efficiency during rapid hydrological transitions.
• It highlights the critical importance of incorporating compound event risks and reservoir regulation capacity into future energy security and climate adaptation strategies.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Huang2025Hydropower,
  author = {Huang, Yifan and Tan, Xuejin and Fu, Jianyu and Deng, Zhihong and Liu, Bingjun},
  title = {Hydropower vulnerability to drought-flood abrupt alternation under climate change},
  journal = {Energy},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2025.139212},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.139212}
}

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