Zeleke et al. (2025) Using a standardized event-based tool for drought analysis: Application to propagation predictability patterns

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-18
• Authors: Ethiopia B. Zeleke, Celray James Chawanda, Assefa M. Melesse
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106745

Research Groups

• Department of Earth and Environment, Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, USA
• Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
• Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Blackland Research & Extension Center, Temple, USA

Short Summary

This study develops a standardized, Python-based methodology using SWAT+ model outputs to analyze meteorological and hydrological drought propagation, revealing diverse propagation behaviors in the Awash Basin.

Objective

• To standardize drought event detection and propagation analysis using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model outputs.
• To develop a methodological approach and implement a Python-based tool that applies the Threshold Level Method to identify and pair meteorological and hydrological droughts, computing key propagation metrics (lag, lengthening, and attenuation).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Awash Basin, Ethiopia; watershed scale.
• Temporal Scale: Event-based analysis of drought propagation across time.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+)
• Data sources: Outputs from the SWAT+ hydrological model; a custom Python-based tool implementing the Threshold Level Method for drought event detection and propagation metric calculation.

Main Results

• The developed approach successfully standardized drought event detection and propagation analysis.
• Diverse drought propagation behaviors were observed in the Awash Basin.
• Some watersheds exhibited strong, delayed hydrological responses to meteorological droughts, while others showed minimal hydrological impact.
• The analysis emphasized the need for localized drought forecasting and highlighted the value of standardized analysis across basins.

Contributions

• Development of a standardized, automated, and reproducible Python-based methodology for drought event detection and propagation analysis using hydrological model outputs.
• Implementation of the Threshold Level Method to identify and pair meteorological and hydrological droughts, and compute propagation metrics (lag, lengthening, attenuation).
• Application of the methodology to the Awash Basin, demonstrating its utility for understanding diverse drought propagation patterns and informing localized drought forecasting.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided paper text.

Citation

@article{Zeleke2025Using,
  author = {Zeleke, Ethiopia B. and Chawanda, Celray James and Melesse, Assefa M.},
  title = {Using a standardized event-based tool for drought analysis: Application to propagation predictability patterns},
  journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106745},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106745}
}