Amestoy et al. (2025) Integrated river basin assessment framework combining probabilistic streamflow reconstruction, Bayesian bias correction, and drought storyline analysis

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-25
• Authors: Trevor J. Amestoy, Andrew Hamilton, Patrick M. Reed
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106756

Research Groups

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University

Short Summary

This study develops a generalizable framework for assessing water availability and drought vulnerability in complex river basins. Applied to the Delaware River Basin using a reconstructed 1960s drought, the framework demonstrates significant vulnerabilities for New York City's drinking water supply and highlights tensions with saltwater intrusion risks under modern management.

Objective

• To contribute a generalizable framework for evaluating water availability and drought vulnerability in institutionally complex river basins, demonstrated by stress testing modern operations in the Delaware River Basin using a historical drought storyline.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Delaware River Basin (DRB)
• Temporal Scale: Reconstructed streamflows from 1945 to 2023; stress testing based on the 1960s drought of record.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: National Hydrologic Model (NHM), Pywr-DRB (for water management simulation)
• Data sources: Results from the National Hydrologic Model, probabilistic flow duration curve-based prediction in ungauged basins methodology, Bayesian bias correction, and a historical drought storyline.

Main Results

• New York City (NYC) reservoirs would experience strong depletion under a 1960s-severity drought if managed with modern operations.
• A drought of this severity reveals significant vulnerabilities to NYC’s drinking water supply.
• Tensions arise between managing NYC's water supply and controlling saltwater intrusion risks to Philadelphia’s water supply during such severe drought conditions.

Contributions

• Provides a generalizable framework for integrated river basin assessment combining probabilistic streamflow reconstruction, Bayesian bias correction, and drought storyline analysis.
• Offers a novel approach for stress testing modern water management operations using historically consequential extreme events.
• Enhances the utility of national-scale hydrological models by integrating them into a detailed regional assessment framework that accounts for historical extremes and institutional complexities.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Amestoy2025Integrated,
  author = {Amestoy, Trevor J. and Hamilton, Andrew and Reed, Patrick M.},
  title = {Integrated river basin assessment framework combining probabilistic streamflow reconstruction, Bayesian bias correction, and drought storyline analysis},
  journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106756},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106756}
}