Wu et al. (2025) ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020

Identification

• Journal: Global and Planetary Change
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-04-08
• Authors: Xinying Wu, Dabang Jiang, Yang Yang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828

Research Groups

• National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China
• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Short Summary

This study quantifies the impact of compound dry-hot events (CDHEs) on maize yield in China from 1961 to 2020, revealing that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly exacerbates these yield losses.

Objective

• To quantify the impact of compound dry-hot events (CDHEs) on maize yield over China and determine the role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in modulating these effects.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China (National scale)
• Temporal Scale: 1961–2020

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical analysis of maize yield and climate variability.
• Data sources: Statistical maize yield data and climate data used to identify CDHEs and ENSO phases.

Main Results

• Compound dry-hot events (CDHEs) resulted in a significant maize yield reduction of 4%.
• The presence of concurrent ENSO events aggravated this yield loss to 6%.
• Land–atmosphere feedbacks were identified as significant contributors to the yield loss.
• Maize yield losses were more substantial during the late stage of growth compared to the early stage when triggered by the conjunction of ENSO and compound events.
• The risk associated with these amplified losses has intensified in recent decades.
• Agronomic practices, specifically irrigation, were noted to significantly offset these negative impacts.

Contributions

• The study provides a quantitative assessment of how large-scale climate variability (ENSO) interacts with compound extreme events to impact food security in China.
• It highlights the critical importance of growth-stage sensitivity and land-atmosphere feedbacks in determining crop yield response to compound extremes.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wu2025ENSO,
  author = {Wu, Xinying and Jiang, Dabang and Yang, Yang},
  title = {ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020},
  journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828}
}