Xiang et al. (2025) Contribution of lower stratospheric ozone to long-term trends in summer precipitation over Mongolia-Northeastern China

Identification

• Journal: Global and Planetary Change
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-11
• Authors: Xinyuan Xiang, Fei Xie, Yan Xia, Yingli Niu, Fuhai Luo, Lingyu Zhou, Nan Yang, Tingshuo Zhang, Hao Tian, Ying Wang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105180

Research Groups

• Faculty of Geographical Science / School of System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
• School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the interdecadal fluctuations of summer precipitation in Mongolia-Northeastern China, revealing that variations in lower stratospheric ozone significantly contribute to observed declines (1982-2002) and subsequent increases (2002-2022) by altering atmospheric circulation.

Objective

• To quantify and explain the contribution of lower stratospheric ozone variations to the long-term trends and interdecadal fluctuations of summer precipitation in Mongolia-Northeastern China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mongolia-Northeastern China (MNC)
• Temporal Scale: 1982 to 2022, focusing on summer (June-July-August, JJA) precipitation.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) archive for multi-model analysis.
• Data sources: Observational data for precipitation trends and CMIP6 model outputs.

Main Results

• Summer precipitation in MNC declined by 0.5 % annually from 1982 to 2002, followed by an annual increase of 0.13 % from 2002 to 2022.
• Variations in lower stratospheric ozone are a significant contributor to these interdecadal fluctuations.
• During stratospheric ozone loss (1982-2002), lower stratospheric cooling occurred in MNC, which altered the meridional temperature gradient, shifted the westerly jet stream poleward, created an anticyclonic anomaly, weakened convection, and reduced precipitation.
• Conversely, stratospheric ozone recovery (2002-2022) produced opposite effects, leading to increased precipitation.
• Most CMIP6 models can reproduce the impact of lower stratospheric ozone on summer precipitation in MNC and accurately simulate the spatial distribution of the ozone-temperature relationship.
• Future ozone recovery is projected to enhance summer precipitation in MNC, impacting regional food security.

Contributions

• Identifies lower stratospheric ozone as a crucial and previously underemphasized factor driving interdecadal summer precipitation trends in Mongolia-Northeastern China.
• Elucidates a clear physical mechanism linking lower stratospheric ozone variations to regional precipitation changes via stratospheric cooling/warming, meridional temperature gradient shifts, westerly jet stream displacement, and anticyclonic anomalies.
• Provides multi-model validation using CMIP6, reinforcing the robustness of the identified ozone-precipitation relationship.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Xiang2025Contribution,
  author = {Xiang, Xinyuan and Xie, Fei and Xia, Yan and Niu, Yingli and Luo, Fuhai and Zhou, Lingyu and Yang, Nan and Zhang, Tingshuo and Tian, Hao and Wang, Ying},
  title = {Contribution of lower stratospheric ozone to long-term trends in summer precipitation over Mongolia-Northeastern China},
  journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105180},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105180}
}