Lamrani et al. (2025) Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of meteorological and agricultural drought indices in the Haouz plain, semi-arid region of Morocco (1984–2023)

Identification

• Journal: Journal of African Earth Sciences
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-24
• Authors: Khadija Lamrani, Ahmed Algouti, Abdellah Algouti, Kaouthar Majdouli, Mohammed Qachar, Khadija Oudour, Mohamed Lakhlili, Imane El kihal
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2025.105902

Research Groups

• Cadi Ayyad University, Geoscience, Geotourism, Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing Laboratory (2GRNT), Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Marrakech, Morocco
• Tensift Hydraulic Basin Agency (ABHT), Morocco

Short Summary

This study analyzes the spatio-temporal dynamics of meteorological and agricultural drought in the Haouz plain, Morocco, from 1984 to 2023, revealing a significant intensification of drought conditions, particularly since 2000, with a historic precipitation minimum recorded in 2023.

Objective

• To analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of meteorological and agricultural drought indices in the Haouz plain, Morocco, to understand drought intensification over the period 1984–2023.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Haouz plain, a semi-arid region in Morocco.
• Temporal Scale: 1984–2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
  • Vegetation Health Index (VHI)
  • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
  • Thermal Condition Index (TCI)
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
  • Actual Evapotranspiration (AET)
  • Precipitation Normalized Index (PNI)
  • Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
  • Mann-Kendall trend analysis
• Data sources:
  • Remote sensing data (for VCI, VHI, NDVI, TCI)
  • Land surveys and precipitation data from the Tensift Hydraulic Basin Agency (ABHT) (for PNI)
  • TerraClimate data (for PDSI)
  • Climatic data (for SPI, AET)

Main Results

• Drought has gradually intensified in the Haouz plain over the past few decades, becoming especially pronounced since 2019.
• The study identified two distinct periods: 1984–1999, characterized by predominantly wet years, and 2000–2023, marked by persistent drought conditions.
• During the 2000–2023 period, only nine wet years were recorded, with a historic precipitation minimum in 2023 and a maximum observed in 2018.
• Mann-Kendall trend analysis revealed significant downward trends in both the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Thermal Condition Index (TCI) over the study period, indicating increasing drought severity and thermal stress.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological and agricultural drought in the Haouz plain using a multi-index approach.
• Validates drought conclusions through a two-source data approach, combining land surveys from a local agency with global reanalysis data (TerraClimate).
• Quantifies the intensification of drought over recent decades, identifying specific periods of change and extreme events, such as the historic precipitation minimum in 2023.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Lamrani2025Analysis,
  author = {Lamrani, Khadija and Algouti, Ahmed and Algouti, Abdellah and Majdouli, Kaouthar and Qachar, Mohammed and Oudour, Khadija and Lakhlili, Mohamed and kihal, Imane El},
  title = {Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of meteorological and agricultural drought indices in the Haouz plain, semi-arid region of Morocco (1984–2023)},
  journal = {Journal of African Earth Sciences},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2025.105902},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2025.105902}
}