Xu et al. (2025) Impact of different rainfall patterns on flood risk on the urban-rural gradient

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-13
• Authors: Yidan Xu, Yanmei Yang, Zegen Wang, Junnan Xiong, Zhiwei Yong, Xiaoxiang Zhang, Jun Liu, Anfeng Zhu, Demin Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126583

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
• School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China
• School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China
• College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
• College of Artificial Intelligence, Zhejiang College of Security Technology, Wenzhou, China
• Tibet Autonomous Region Key Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing and Applications, Lhasa, Tibet, China

Short Summary

This study developed a framework combining hydrodynamic modeling and multi-indicator decision analysis to quantify the dynamic response of flood risk to different rainfall patterns along the urban-rural gradient. It found that flood risk is significantly higher in rural areas compared to urban and suburban areas, with differences worsening under heavier rainfall, and that rainfall peak timing influences flood response time.

Objective

• To quantify the characteristics of the dynamic response of flood risk to different rainfall patterns (RFRRP) and analyze its trends along the urban-rural gradient (URG).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Urban-rural gradient (Urban – Sub-urban - Middle – Sub-rural – Rural).
• Temporal Scale: Rainfall period, flood risk response time, 50-year return period.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled hydrodynamic modeling, multi-indicator decision analysis.
• Data sources: Local hydrological and meteorological departments.

Main Results

• The further back the rainfall peak occurred during the rainfall period, the longer the flood risk response time, which could be shortened by increased rainfall.
• The time of peak flood risk in the lower reaches of the river may occur outside the rainfall period, with flood risk in these areas being lower during rainfall and increasing significantly after rainfall stops, especially with higher rainfall.
• The RFRRP pattern remained consistent across the urban-rural gradient.
• Flood risk showed a decreasing and then increasing trend along the urban-rural gradient (Urban – Sub-urban - Middle – Sub-rural – Rural).
• Flood risk was significantly larger in areas closer to the countryside than in those close to the city.
• Under a 50-year return period, flood risk in rural areas was approximately three times as large as that in sub-urban areas and about 1.5 times as large as that in urban areas.
• Differences in flood risk worsened under heavier rainfall.

Contributions

• Developed a novel framework combining coupled hydrodynamic modeling and multi-indicator decision analysis to quantify dynamic flood risk response to varying rainfall patterns along the urban-rural gradient.
• Provided new insights into the complex dynamic responses of flood risk to different rainfall patterns and their spatial distribution across the urban-rural gradient.
• Offered practical guidance for planning and design of urban-rural integration and flood mitigation strategies in areas with similar urban-rural gradient distributions.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Xu2025Impact,
  author = {Xu, Yidan and Yang, Yanmei and Wang, Zegen and Xiong, Junnan and Yong, Zhiwei and Zhang, Xiaoxiang and Liu, Jun and Zhu, Anfeng and Li, Demin},
  title = {Impact of different rainfall patterns on flood risk on the urban-rural gradient},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126583},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126583}
}