Ren et al. (2025) Global land desertification risk assessment

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-26
• Authors: Yu Ren, Shengchun Xiao, Xiaomei Peng, Bo Zhang, Jing Zhou, Jiakang Wang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128098

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, China

Short Summary

This study conducted a global assessment of desertification risk in 2020 using an enhanced MEDALUS-ESA model, revealing that 43.09 % of the global land area faces high or extreme desertification risk, primarily driven by climate quality.

Objective

• To conduct a global assessment of desertification risk in 2020.
• To identify the main driving factors of global desertification risk and their spatial variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: 2020

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Enhanced Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use-Environmentally Sensitive Area (MEDALUS-ESA) model.
• Data sources: Multifaceted evaluation indicators from four aspects (implied to include multi-source remote sensing data and other environmental/socio-economic data, though specific sources are not detailed in the provided text).

Main Results

• 43.09 % of the global area is currently located in regions at high or extreme risk of desertification.
• Areas with low desertification risk account for approximately 35.52 % of the global area.
• Areas with moderate desertification risk account for approximately 21.39 % of the global area.
• Regions at high and extreme risk are predominantly concentrated in the Mediterranean, East Africa, East Asia, South Africa, South America, and West Africa.
• Globally, climate quality emerged as the primary driver of desertification risk.
• Vegetation quality and management quality were identified as secondary drivers.
• The contributions of these driving factors exhibit significant spatial variability.

Contributions

• Provides the first global-scale assessment of desertification risk using an enhanced MEDALUS-ESA model, addressing previous limitations of regionally constrained studies.
• Identifies global hotspots of desertification risk and quantifies the relative contributions of key driving factors (climate, vegetation, management quality) at a planetary scale.
• Offers valuable insights and guidance for global and regional desertification risk management strategies, supporting the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Funding

• [No funding information was provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Ren2025Global,
  author = {Ren, Yu and Xiao, Shengchun and Peng, Xiaomei and Zhang, Bo and Zhou, Jing and Wang, Jiakang},
  title = {Global land desertification risk assessment},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128098},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128098}
}