Chakraborty et al. (2025) An integrated framework for flood risk forecasting utilizing global weather predictions and hydrodynamic Modelling: An appraisal of the Krishna River Basin case study, India

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-29
• Authors: Ankan Chakraborty, Kaustav Mondal, Mousumi Ghosh, Subimal Ghosh, Subhankar Karmakar
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128116

Research Groups

• Centre for Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
• Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
• Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
• Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States

Short Summary

This study proposes a novel and scalable framework for flood risk forecasting that integrates global rainfall forecasts, hydrodynamic modeling, and socioeconomic vulnerability assessment to support response prioritization. Applied to the Krishna River Basin, India, the framework identifies hazard-driven, vulnerability-driven, and compound high-risk zones for anticipatory planning.

Objective

• To develop and demonstrate an integrated framework for flood risk forecasting utilizing global weather predictions and hydrodynamic modeling, with an emphasis on response-driven planning and socioeconomic vulnerability assessment to support response prioritization.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Krishna River Basin (KRB), India, spanning four Indian states. Flood inundation maps are high-resolution, and socioeconomic vulnerability is assessed at the sub-district level.
• Temporal Scale: Forecasts for recent extreme rainfall-induced pluvial flood events across multiple lead times. Socioeconomic vulnerability is assessed using recent Census data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model
• Data sources:
  • Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for forecasted precipitation.
  • Recent Census data for socioeconomic vulnerability (SEV) assessment.
  • Observational data from recent flood events for validation.

Main Results

• A novel metric, Critical Response Time (CRT), was introduced to quantify the time required for each grid cell to reach a threshold inundation depth, serving as a dynamic spatial indicator of hazard intensity and urgency.
• Socioeconomic vulnerability (SEV) was assessed using recent Census data, applying multiple aggregation and ranking techniques.
• Bivariate choropleth flood risk maps were generated by overlaying sub-district-level SEV scores with CRT-based hazard outputs, identifying hazard-driven, vulnerability-driven, and compound high-risk zones.
• Results indicate that the eastern Krishna River Basin faces high compound risk, while the western part is predominantly hazard-driven.
• Validation with recent flood events confirmed the framework’s capability for anticipatory planning.

Contributions

• Proposes a novel, scalable, and integrated framework for flood risk forecasting that combines global rainfall forecasts, hydrodynamic modeling, and socioeconomic vulnerability assessment, specifically tailored for response prioritization.
• Introduces the Critical Response Time (CRT) as a dynamic and spatially explicit metric for quantifying hazard intensity and urgency, enhancing flood early warning systems.
• Provides a generalizable, transparent, and spatially explicit tool for early warning, response prioritization, and resource allocation, particularly valuable for river basins facing hydro-climatic risks in developing countries like India.
• Addresses a gap in existing literature by focusing on response-driven planning at the river basin scale in India.

Funding

No specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes were mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Chakraborty2025integrated,
  author = {Chakraborty, Ankan and Mondal, Kaustav and Ghosh, Mousumi and Ghosh, Subimal and Karmakar, Subhankar},
  title = {An integrated framework for flood risk forecasting utilizing global weather predictions and hydrodynamic Modelling: An appraisal of the Krishna River Basin case study, India},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128116},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128116}
}