Ahmadi et al. (2025) Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land use change on hydrological response in a mixed land use watershed

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-12
• Authors: Hossein Ahmadi, Durelle Scott, David J. Sample, Siddharth Saksena
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128277

Research Groups

• Department of Biological System Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, 24060, USA
• Biological and Agricultural Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA
• Hampton Roads Agricultural Research and Extension Center, Virginia Beach, VA, 23455, USA
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, 20460, USA

Short Summary

This study developed a coupled modeling platform (SWMM and SWAT+) to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Stroubles Creek watershed, finding increased flood risks and reduced drought resilience in urban areas due to rising temperatures, more intense rainfall, and expanding impervious surfaces.

Objective

• To assess the combined impacts of climate change and land use/land cover change on the hydrological response of a mixed land use watershed, specifically focusing on flood risks and drought resilience.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Stroubles Creek watershed in Montgomery County, Virginia, USA.
• Temporal Scale: Three 30-year periods: baseline (1981–2010), mid-century (2031–2060), and late-century (2071–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+), coupled together.
• Data sources: Climate projections from CMIP6, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) projections from Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) data source, utilizing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585).

Main Results

• Temperatures are projected to increase under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, with a maximum rise of nearly 9 °C by the late century under SSP585, most pronounced in winter.
• Precipitation projections indicate a shift toward more intense rainfall events under most scenarios, with an increase of up to 21.6 % in the mid-century SSP245 scenario.
• Expanding urban land use combined with higher-intensity storms leads to a sharp rise in urban peak flows, with 25-year flood magnitudes increasing by up to 100 % in the mid-century SSP245 scenario.
• A decline in mean annual precipitation coupled with expanding impervious surfaces leads to substantial reductions in 7Q30 (a measure of low flow) in urban areas, with decreases reaching nearly 45 % under the late-century SSP585 scenario.
• Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the compounded effects of climate and land use change, facing amplified flood risks and reduced drought resilience compared to rural portions of the watershed.

Contributions

• Development of an automated platform for coupling climate and LULC projections with hydrological models (SWMM and SWAT+) to assess combined impacts in mixed land use watersheds.
• Provides specific quantitative insights into amplified flood risks and reduced drought resilience in urban areas under future climate and land use scenarios, addressing a gap in understanding the hydrological response of mixed land use watersheds to these combined effects.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ahmadi2025Evaluating,
  author = {Ahmadi, Hossein and Scott, Durelle and Sample, David J. and Saksena, Siddharth},
  title = {Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land use change on hydrological response in a mixed land use watershed},
  journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128277},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128277}
}