Kumwenda et al. (2025) Evaluation of hydrological response to land use land cover changes of Lufilya catchment

Identification

• Journal: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-25
• Authors: Lenard Kumwenda, Patsani Gregory Kumambala, Lameck Fiwa, Chikondi Makwiza, Deogratias M. M. Mulungu, Celray James Chawanda, Sakthi Kiran Duraisamy Rajasekaran, Stanley Phiri
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104162

Research Groups

• Agricultural Engineering Department, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lilongwe, Malawi
• University of Dar es Salaam, College of Engineering and Technology, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
• Texas A&M Agrilife Research, Temple, United States
• Centre for Advanced Research in Environment, School of Civil Engineering, SASTRA Deemed University, Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu, India
• L Gravam Consulting Engineers, Lilongwe, Malawi

Short Summary

This study conducted the first hydrological modelling assessment of Malawi's Lufilya catchment, revealing that significant forest cover loss (73.3%) between 1994 and 2023 led to substantial increases in runoff (up to 39%) and amplified flood risks.

Objective

• To evaluate the hydrological response of the Lufilya catchment in northern Malawi to land use and land cover changes between 1994 and 2023.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lufilya catchment, northern Malawi.
• Temporal Scale: Multi-decadal analysis of land use and land cover changes from 1994 to 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model.
• Data sources: Multi-decadal Landsat satellite data (1994, 2003, 2013, 2023) for land use and land cover classification; observation data from the Ngerenge gauging station for model calibration.

Main Results

• Land use and land cover classification achieved reliable accuracy with Kappa coefficients ranging from 0.67 to 0.91.
• The WEAP model demonstrated satisfactory performance under data-scarce conditions, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.60–0.74, coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.64–0.77, and Percent Bias (PBIAS) within ±1 %.
• Between 1994 and 2023, forest cover in the Lufilya catchment declined by 474.8 km² (73.3 %), while open savannah, bare ground, and cropland expanded by 108.4 %, 72.4 %, and 22.2 %, respectively.
• These land cover transitions resulted in increased runoff by 5 %, 13 %, and 39 % under the 2003, 2013, and 2023 scenarios, respectively, compared to the 1994 baseline.
• The most significant changes in runoff occurred between 2003 and 2013, coinciding with accelerated forest loss, indicating reduced infiltration, interception, and evapotranspiration.

Contributions

• Provides the first hydrological modelling assessment for the Lufilya catchment, a flood-prone and data-scarce basin in northern Malawi.
• Quantifies the direct hydrological impacts of multi-decadal land use and land cover changes, particularly forest loss, on runoff generation in a sub-Saharan African context.
• Highlights the critical role of land use and land cover in amplifying flood risks and offers evidence-based recommendations for sustainable land management (reforestation, sustainable farming, controlled grazing) to support national development goals.

Funding

• No specific funding projects or programs were mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Kumwenda2025Evaluation,
  author = {Kumwenda, Lenard and Kumambala, Patsani Gregory and Fiwa, Lameck and Makwiza, Chikondi and Mulungu, Deogratias M. M. and Chawanda, Celray James and Rajasekaran, Sakthi Kiran Duraisamy and Phiri, Stanley},
  title = {Evaluation of hydrological response to land use land cover changes of Lufilya catchment},
  journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2025.104162},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2025.104162}
}