Cao et al. (2025) Study on the characteristics of rainfall variation in the Huaihe River Basin based on multi-method analysis

Identification

• Journal: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-27
• Authors: Pengxin Cao, Chengcheng Xu, Chuiyu Lu, Kaixuan Guo, Ao Sun, Xin’ang Li
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.104213

Research Groups

• School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, China
• State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle Simulation and Regulation, GU, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study comprehensively analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin from 1923 to 2023 using multiple statistical methods, revealing an overall upward trend, distinct spatial patterns, significant periodic fluctuations, abrupt change points, and widespread multifractal characteristics.

Objective

• To comprehensively reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation characteristics in the Huaihe River Basin under intensifying global climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Huaihe River Basin, analyzing data from 16 representative meteorological stations.
• Temporal Scale: 101 years (1923–2023) of monthly precipitation data, identifying periodic fluctuations at 2–12 years and 20–40 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test (for trend detection and abrupt change analysis)
  • Wavelet transform (for periodic fluctuation analysis)
  • Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA)
  • Wavelet-based Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (W-MFDFA)
• Data sources: Monthly precipitation data from 16 representative meteorological stations within the Huaihe River Basin.

Main Results

• Precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin shows a general upward trend, with particularly notable increases in upstream regions.
• Spatially, precipitation intensity increases from the northwest to the southeast across the basin.
• Wavelet analysis identified significant periodic fluctuations at interannual to decadal scales (2–12 years) and multi-decadal scales (20–40 years).
• The Mann-Kendall test detected multiple abrupt change points in precipitation dynamics, predominantly occurring after the year 2000.
• Both MFDFA and W-MFDFA revealed widespread multifractal characteristics in the precipitation series, indicating pronounced nonlinear behaviors at specific stations like Fuyang and Zhoukou.

Contributions

• Enhances the understanding of regional climate variability mechanisms in the Huaihe River Basin.
• Provides theoretical support and decision-making references for optimized water resource allocation and flood risk management in the region.
• Integrates multiple advanced analytical methods (Mann-Kendall, wavelet transform, MFDFA, W-MFDFA) for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation characteristics.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Cao2025Study,
  author = {Cao, Pengxin and Xu, Chengcheng and Lu, Chuiyu and Guo, Kaixuan and Sun, Ao and Li, Xin’ang},
  title = {Study on the characteristics of rainfall variation in the Huaihe River Basin based on multi-method analysis},
  journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2025.104213},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2025.104213}
}