Tafesa et al. (2025) Assessing groundwater and climate susceptibility in Masgeredo-Bulal catchment, Ethiopia

Identification

• Journal: Scientific African
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-26
• Authors: Amenti Merga Tafesa, Tenalem Ayenew, Shankar Karuppannan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03112

Research Groups

• Pan Africa University Institute of Water and Energy, including climate change (PAUWES), c/o Tlemcen University, Chetouane, Tlemcen 13000, Algeria
• University of Birmingham, B15 2TT, Edgbaston, Birmingham, United Kingdom
• School of Earth Science, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
• Department of Applied Geology, College of Applied Natural Science, Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, P.O. Box 1888, Ethiopia
• Department of Research Analytics, Saveetha Dental College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences (SIMATS), Saveetha University, Chennai 600077, Tamil Nadu, India

Short Summary

This study assesses groundwater potential and climate change impacts in Southern Ethiopia's Masgeredo-Bulal catchment using GIS, remote sensing, and climate modeling, revealing that 51.6% of the catchment has good groundwater potential while future projections indicate increased temperature and decreased precipitation.

Objective

• Identify the most influential biophysical and environmental factors affecting groundwater availability.
• Apply an integrated GIS and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to delineate Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZs).
• Evaluate the impacts of future climate change on groundwater resources using bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) data.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Masgeredo-Bulal catchment, Borena Zone, Southern Ethiopia, covering an area of 7418 km².
• Temporal Scale: Historical climate records from 1990–2022 and future climate projections for 2031–2060.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Geographical Information System (GIS) (ArcGIS 10.8), Remote Sensing (RS), Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa regional climate models (CORDEX Afri-44, RCA4), Climate Model Hybrid (CMhyd) hydrological model, Kriging interpolation method, Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) algorithm.
• Data sources: Satellite imagery, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) (30 m spatial resolution), climate data from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Institute (Yabelo, Taltele, Konso, Mega stations) and CORDEX Africa (ESGF-Co) archive (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios), geological and soil data from the Ethiopian Geospatial Institute and Geological Survey of Ethiopia, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data derived from satellite imagery, and well yield data from 32 existing boreholes and springs for validation.

Main Results

• The Masgeredo-Bulal catchment's groundwater potential is classified as: 51.60 % good, 47.47 % moderate, 0.69 % very good, and 0.22 % poor.
• Southern and southwestern regions exhibit superior groundwater potential compared to the north and east.
• Geology (34.65 %) and rainfall (23.53 %) were identified as the most influential factors for groundwater potential, while the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) (3.4 %) had the least influence.
• Future climate projections (2031–2060) indicate a mean monthly precipitation decrease of 2.82 mm under RCP 4.5 and 2.9 mm under RCP 8.5.
• Mean monthly temperatures are projected to rise by 22.9 °C under RCP 4.5 and 23.19 °C under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline period.
• Validation of the GWPZ map showed 89.2 % consistency with observed well yield data.

Contributions

• Offers new insights for sustainable water management and climate adaptation strategies by integrating multi-criteria groundwater assessment with future climate projections.
• Provides vital information for policymakers and resource planners in the region, addressing water scarcity in Southern Ethiopia.
• Introduces a novel integration of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with bias-corrected regional climate projections from CORDEX Afri-44, enhancing the robustness of groundwater potential assessments under climate uncertainty in semi-arid regions.
• Aligns with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and contributes to global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to sustainable water use and climate resilience.

Funding

This research received no funding from any source.

Citation

@article{Tafesa2025Assessing,
  author = {Tafesa, Amenti Merga and Ayenew, Tenalem and Karuppannan, Shankar},
  title = {Assessing groundwater and climate susceptibility in Masgeredo-Bulal catchment, Ethiopia},
  journal = {Scientific African},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03112},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03112}
}

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