Ilyas et al. (2025) Climate-responsive cropland dynamics in Indus Basin: A comprehensive SDM assessment with intra-seasonal variability

Identification

• Journal: The Science of The Total Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Fatima Ilyas, Muhammad Azmat, Sadia Javed, Shakil Ahmad, Muhammad Arshad, Muhammad Usman Rashid, Saeed Ahmad Asad
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.181094

Research Groups

• School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan
• Faculty of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Punjab Tianjin University of Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
• Department of Biosciences, COMSATS University, Islamabad, Pakistan

Short Summary

This study predicts the spatial and temporal shifts in the suitability of five major crops in the Indus Plain under various climate change scenarios using an ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach. It reveals significant alterations in crop suitability, primarily driven by elevation and phenology-specific climatic variables, which necessitate adaptive strategies for food security.

Objective

• To accurately predict the spatial and temporal shifts in the potential distribution of five major crops (wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, and maize) in the Indus Plain under different climate change scenarios to inform adaptation strategies and ensure food security.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Indus Plain (part of the Indus Basin located in Pakistan)
• Temporal Scale: Baseline (1985–2015), Near-future (2025–2055), Far-future (2055–2085)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach, integrated with CMIP6 climate projections (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios), utilizing the Biomod2 package.
• Data sources: Crop occurrence points, phenological stage-specific climatic variables (precipitation, tropical nights, maximum temperature, minimum temperature), and CMIP6 climate projections.

Main Results

• Crop suitability is primarily influenced by elevation and phenology-specific climatic variables (precipitation, tropical nights, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature).
• Significant alterations are projected in the suitable areas for all five major crops in the Indus Plain.
• Projected declines in suitability: wheat up to 27%, maize up to 12%, cotton up to 11%, and rice up to 29%.
• Tropical nights show a notable impact on the suitability of rice, maize, and sugarcane.
• Rice and cotton suitability are projected to decline in the near-future, followed by an increase in the far-future.
• Maize suitability is projected to remain stable (under SSP2) or increase (under SSP5) in the 2050s, followed by a decline in the 2080s.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive SDM assessment incorporating intra-seasonal variability through phenological stage-specific climatic variables for major crops in the Indus Plain.
• Utilizes advanced CMIP6 climate projections and an ensemble SDM approach to predict future crop distribution shifts, offering robust insights for a climate-vulnerable region.
• Delivers critical information for developing effective adaptation strategies and ensuring food security in the context of climate change.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ilyas2025Climateresponsive,
  author = {Ilyas, Fatima and Azmat, Muhammad and Javed, Sadia and Ahmad, Shakil and Arshad, Muhammad and Rashid, Muhammad Usman and Asad, Saeed Ahmad},
  title = {Climate-responsive cropland dynamics in Indus Basin: A comprehensive SDM assessment with intra-seasonal variability},
  journal = {The Science of The Total Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.181094},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.181094}
}