Rateb et al. (2025) Dynamics and Couplings of Terrestrial Water Storage Extremes From GRACE and GRACE‐FO Missions During 2002–2024

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: AGU Advances
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-20
• Authors: Ashraf Rateb, Bridget R. Scanlon, Yadu Pokhrel, Alexander Y. Sun
• DOI: 10.1029/2025av001684

Research Groups

Information not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

This study evaluates global Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) extremeness and its climate linkages using GRACE and GRACE-FO data from 2002 to 2024, revealing that TWS extremes are governed by a 2–3 year El Niño–Southern Oscillation-linked cycle and a weaker quasi-decadal cycle, with a shift around 2011–2012 where dry extremes became dominant despite no significant global trends in intensity.

Objective

• To evaluate global Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) extremeness and its linkages to climate using satellite gravimetry data.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: 22 years (2002–2024)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Dimensional reduction, probabilistic modeling (for reconstructing TWS extremeness during data gaps).
• Data sources: GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry data.

Main Results

• Global TWS extremes are primarily governed by a 2–3 year oscillatory cycle linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which synchronizes drought and pluvial conditions across continents.
• Drought extremes exhibit broader spatial coherence compared to pluvial events, suggesting more uniform propagation of moisture deficits.
• A weaker quasi-decadal cycle (6–10 years) modulates these responses and underlies a significant shift around 2011–2012.
• Before 2011, wet extremes intensified, whereas after 2012, dry extremes became dominant, particularly in interior Asia, the western United States, and southern Africa.
• Neither pluvial nor drought extremes show significant global trends in intensity over the study period.
• Wet events are approximately twice as intense as dry ones, indicating an asymmetric hydrologic response to moisture surpluses versus deficits.
• TWS extremeness during satellite data gaps was probabilistically reconstructed using leading spatio-temporal patterns.

Contributions

• Provides an updated and extended analysis of global TWS extremeness and its climate drivers using the full GRACE and GRACE-FO record (2002-2024).
• Identifies the dominant oscillatory cycles (ENSO-linked 2–3 year and quasi-decadal 6–10 year) governing global TWS extremes.
• Reveals a critical shift in the dominance of TWS extremes from wet to dry conditions around 2011–2012.
• Quantifies the asymmetric intensity between wet and dry extreme events, highlighting distinct hydrological responses.
• Emphasizes the current insufficiency of the satellite record (less than one multidecadal cycle) for robust attribution of extremes under climate change, advocating for continued satellite gravimetry.

Funding

Information not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{Rateb2025Dynamics,
  author = {Rateb, Ashraf and Scanlon, Bridget R. and Pokhrel, Yadu and Sun, Alexander Y.},
  title = {Dynamics and Couplings of Terrestrial Water Storage Extremes From GRACE and GRACE‐FO Missions During 2002–2024},
  journal = {AGU Advances},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025av001684},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025av001684}
}