Yang et al. (2025) Climate Change and Population Aging Exacerbate Flood Risk to the Elderly in European Regions

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-01
• Authors: Wenyu Yang, Ziyong Zhao, Zhenyu Wang, Xuan Wang, Ruifei Li, Pei Hua, Xiangju Cheng, Yungang Liu, Haijun Wang, Peter Krebs, Jin Zhang
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006366

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the flood risk to the elderly population in Europe by integrating climate projections and socioeconomic pathways into a hydraulic modeling framework, revealing significant increases in exposure within Central Europe.

Objective

• To analyze the flood risk to the elderly population (aged 65+) in Europe under the combined influence of climatic warming and population aging.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Europe, with a focus on Central Europe, major river basins (Loire, Rhine, Elbe, and Danube), and specific cities (Prague, Dresden, and Hamburg).
• Temporal Scale: Future projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: General Circulation Model (GCM), Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) projections, and a hydraulic modeling framework.
• Data sources: GCM climate projections and SSP socioeconomic data.

Main Results

• Hydrological Changes: Central Europe experienced an increase in surface runoff and streamflow exceeding 50%, intensifying flooding in the Loire, Rhine, Elbe, and Danube basins.
• Elbe Basin Specifics: The 100-year flood peak increased by approximately 107%, while the elderly population increased by approximately 15%.
• Exposure Metrics (SSP5-8.5): Approximately 51,300 (CI: 45,300–60,500) elderly individuals are exposed to high-hazard floods; up to 58% (29,800) of these are in low-to-middle-income groups or densely settled areas.
• Urban Risk: Prague showed the highest vulnerability, with 40%–54% of exposed elderly in high-risk areas, followed by Dresden and Hamburg (up to 18%).

Contributions

• The study provides a novel integration of GCMs and SSPs into hydraulic modeling to quantify the intersection of climate change and demographic aging, highlighting regional inequalities in flood exposure.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yang2025Climate,
  author = {Yang, Wenyu and Zhao, Ziyong and Wang, Zhenyu and Wang, Xuan and Li, Ruifei and Hua, Pei and Cheng, Xiangju and Liu, Yungang and Wang, Haijun and Krebs, Peter and Zhang, Jin},
  title = {Climate Change and Population Aging Exacerbate Flood Risk to the Elderly in European Regions},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006366},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006366}
}