Aguayo et al. (2025) Hybrid Glacio‐Hydrological Modeling Reveals Contrasting Runoff Changes in Western Patagonia Over the 21st Century

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-01
• Authors: Rodrigo Aguayo, Harry Zekollari, Sarah Hanus, Oscar M. Baez‐Villanueva, Pablo A. Mendoza, Fabien Maussion
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006442

Research Groups

Not explicitly detailed in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study develops a novel hybrid modeling framework combining LSTM neural networks with ice-dynamical glacier modeling (OGGM) to simulate historical glacio-hydrology and project climate change impacts on freshwater resources across 2,236 catchments in Western Patagonia. The framework outperforms other models and projects significant runoff reductions in northern Western Patagonia, while southern glacierized basins are projected to experience runoff increases under a high-emission scenario.

Objective

• To model the historical glacio-hydrology of 2,236 catchments across Western Patagonia and project climate change impacts on these freshwater resources through the 21st century.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 2,236 catchments across Western Patagonia (northern region >46°S, southern regions).
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (2000–2019) and projections through the 21st century.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Novel hybrid modeling framework combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM).
  • For comparison: LSTM model without a glacier component, and two process-based coupled glacio-hydrological models.
• Data sources: Not explicitly detailed in the abstract, but implied by modeling approach (e.g., climate model outputs for projections, reanalysis data for historical period, Shared socioeconomic pathways 5-8.5 for high-emission scenario).

Main Results

• The hybrid modeling approach outperforms other tested approaches in 38% of catchments for ungauged basin prediction (PUB) and 44% for ungauged region prediction (PUR).
• The average regional freshwater flux for 2000–2019 is estimated at 19,815 m³ s⁻¹, with glacier melt contributing 29% during the summer season.
• Under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5):
  • The northern region (>46°S) is projected to experience the largest reductions in runoff, with dry season runoff decreasing by almost 50% by the end of the century.
  • Glacierized basins in the southern regions are projected to experience runoff increases, with average relative changes of 10%–25% and a marked seasonality shift.

Contributions

• Development of a novel hybrid modeling framework that combines LSTM neural networks with ice-dynamical glacier modeling (OGGM) for glacio-hydrology.
• Demonstrated improved ability of the hybrid framework to predict streamflow in ungauged basins and regions compared to existing methods.
• Provided important regional-scale projections of climate change impacts on freshwater resources in Western Patagonia, highlighting distinct regional responses.

Funding

Not explicitly detailed in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Aguayo2025Hybrid,
  author = {Aguayo, Rodrigo and Zekollari, Harry and Hanus, Sarah and Baez‐Villanueva, Oscar M. and Mendoza, Pablo A. and Maussion, Fabien},
  title = {Hybrid Glacio‐Hydrological Modeling Reveals Contrasting Runoff Changes in Western Patagonia Over the 21st Century},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006442},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006442}
}