Rastogi et al. (2025) Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Deeksha Rastogi, Haoran Niu, Shih‐Chieh Kao, Moetasim Ashfaq
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006570

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates extreme storm characteristics (size, depth, volume, intensity) over the conterminous US using various downscaling techniques and CMIP6 GCMs, finding consistent future intensification across seasons and ensemble-dependent changes in storm size.

Objective

• To investigate the characteristics (size, average depth, total precipitation volume, intensity, frequency) of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and projected future scenarios.
• To address the lack of consensus regarding how extreme storm size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing.
• To thoroughly examine the influence of different downscaling techniques on extreme storm characteristics.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Conterminous United States.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period and a projected future scenario, analyzed across Winter, Spring, and Summer seasons.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ensemble of high-resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs), utilizing dynamical, statistical, and artificial intelligence-based downscaling techniques.
• Data sources: High-resolution climate projections, two reference observations.

Main Results

• Noticeable differences were found in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of extreme storms among climate ensembles in the historical period.
• Despite historical differences, consistent future changes were observed across various ensembles.
• A robust projected increase in storm size was found during Winter and Spring.
• A projected decrease in storm size was observed during Summer in the East.
• Extreme storms are projected to intensify across all ensembles and seasons, irrespective of changes in their size.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive investigation into the projected changes in extreme storm characteristics, particularly storm size, addressing a current lack of consensus in the literature.
• Examines the influence of different downscaling techniques (dynamical, statistical, AI-based) on extreme storm characteristics, a previously underexamined aspect.
• Utilizes an ensemble of high-resolution projections from multiple CMIP6 GCMs, enhancing the robustness of findings.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Rastogi2025Evaluating,
  author = {Rastogi, Deeksha and Niu, Haoran and Kao, Shih‐Chieh and Ashfaq, Moetasim},
  title = {Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006570},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006570}
}