Kim et al. (2025) Changes in the Frequency of Flood Events Across the United States Detectable by the Middle of This Century

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Hanbeen Kim, Gabriele Villarini, Sarah Maebius
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef006677

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study applies a statistical attribution-and-projection approach to thousands of streamgages across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to assess how the frequency of flood events is expected to change under multiple scenarios, finding increased frequency in the eastern US, slight decreases in the Southwest and Great Plains, and shifts in seasonality by mid-century.

Objective

• To assess how the frequency of flood events is projected to change under different scenarios across the conterminous United States (CONUS).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Conterminous United States (CONUS)
• Temporal Scale: Projections up to the middle of this century (approximately 2050).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical attribution-and-projection approach.
• Data sources: Thousands of streamgages across CONUS (observational data).

Main Results

• More frequent flood events are projected for the eastern United States.
• Decreases in flood frequency are slightly more common than increases in the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains.
• The seasonality of flood events is projected to shift, exhibiting distinct regional patterns influenced by geography, topography, and season.
• These projected changes are expected to manifest by the middle of this century.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive assessment of projected changes in flood event frequency across thousands of streamgages in CONUS using a statistical attribution-and-projection approach.
• Identifies distinct regional patterns in future flood frequency and seasonality shifts across the United States.
• Emphasizes the pressing need for flood mitigation and adaptation efforts to address changes expected by mid-century.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Kim2025Changes,
  author = {Kim, Hanbeen and Villarini, Gabriele and Maebius, Sarah},
  title = {Changes in the Frequency of Flood Events Across the United States Detectable by the Middle of This Century},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef006677},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef006677}
}