Bobde et al. (2025) Future Intensification of Compound Heatwaves and Socioeconomic Exposure in Africa

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Vishal Bobde, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Thierry N. Taguela
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007022

## Research Groups -

Short Summary

This study projects a robust intensification of compound heatwaves (co-occurring daytime and nighttime heatwaves) across Africa with increasing global warming levels, leading to significantly higher population and economic exposure, particularly in Western, central, and eastern regions, and a dramatic increase in the frequency of historically rare events.

Objective

• To assess projected changes in compound heatwaves (CHWs, defined as co-occurring daytime and nighttime heatwaves) across Africa at three global warming levels (1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C) and under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental Africa, with specific focus on Western, central, and eastern Africa.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections based on global warming levels (1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, examining changes from historical frequencies (e.g., once every 50 or 100 years) to future frequencies (e.g., every 5–6 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
• Data sources: Projections from CMIP6 models.

Main Results

• A robust intensification of compound heatwaves (CHWs) is projected with increasing global warming levels across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
• Population exposure to CHWs is projected to be higher under SSP370 due to a larger increase in population.
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exposure to CHWs is projected to be higher under SSP585 due to rapid GDP growth fueled by fossil energy.
• Western, central, and eastern Africa are identified as the most affected regions, with projected CHW exposures increasing by tens to thousands of times.
• Historically rare CHWs (occurring once every 50 or 100 years) are projected to become significantly more frequent, potentially recurring every 5–6 years, even under a modest 1.5 °C warming.
• A strong, statistically significant positive correlation (r > 0.85, p < 0.01) exists between near-surface temperature and changes in CHW metrics, indicating further warming will exacerbate CHWs.
• The projected warming is primarily driven by enhanced net downwelling surface radiation, modulated by enhanced downwelling longwave radiation under clear-sky conditions.
• Strengthening mid-to upper-tropospheric anticyclonic systems also contribute to the warming.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive assessment of projected changes in compound heatwaves (co-occurring daytime and nighttime) across Africa using CMIP6 models.
• Quantifies the differential impacts of CHWs on population and GDP exposure under various global warming levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
• Identifies specific regional hotspots (Western, central, and eastern Africa) most vulnerable to increased CHW frequency and intensity.
• Highlights the dramatic increase in frequency of historically rare CHW events, even at lower warming levels.
• Elucidates the underlying physical mechanisms driving the projected warming and CHW intensification, including surface energy budget components and atmospheric circulation patterns.

## Funding -

Citation

@article{Bobde2025Future,
  author = {Bobde, Vishal and Akinsanola, Akintomide A. and Taguela, Thierry N.},
  title = {Future Intensification of Compound Heatwaves and Socioeconomic Exposure in Africa},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007022},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007022}
}