Ayantobo et al. (2025) Atmospheric Rivers Sustain and Reshape Hydrological Responses Across Chinese River Basins

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Olusola O. Ayantobo, Shengjun Zhang, Jing Wei, Yufei Xing
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007153

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the role of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in driving hydrological responses across Chinese river basins from 1950 to 2023, revealing a significant south-to-north contrast where southern basins experience strong, long ARs that sustain wetness and amplify floods, while central and northern basins show declining AR influence since the 1980s.

Objective

• To quantify the role of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in sustaining and reshaping hydrological responses (precipitation, extreme precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) in Chinese river basins.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Chinese river basins, including Huai River Basin, Southwest Basin, Yangtze River Basin, and Pearl River Basin.
• Temporal Scale: 1950–2023, with analysis of changes since the 1980s.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Zero-inflated beta (ZIB) regression (for modeling contributions), TROVA (for tracing moisture sources).
• Data sources: ARs detected using integrated water vapor transport (IVT) dual percentile thresholds with morphological filtering; hydrological responses attributed via a 1.5° axis buffer around ARs.

Main Results

• A south-to-north contrast in AR characteristics and hydrological responses was observed across China.
• Southern basins exhibit high summer IVT (approximately 600–1100 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹) from long ARs (approximately 13000 km) that sustain antecedent wetness and amplify floods.
• Since the 1980s, ARs have shortened and weakened in central and northern basins, leading to a decline in associated hydrological responses.
• Basin mean AR contributions for precipitation, extreme precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture peak in the Huai River Basin (16.5%, 70.0%, 17.9%, 3.2% respectively) and are lowest in the Southwest Basin (0.1%, 0.8%, 0.1%, 0.04% respectively).
• ZIB regression indicates a declining mean AR influence on soil moisture in eastern China and increasing shares of extremes in the southeast.
• Antecedent soil moisture is identified as the strongest covariate of AR-induced precipitation.
• During AR-driven floods, dominant moisture sources can reach 74.7% from the East Asia Monsoon (Yangtze River Basin, 1998), 55.6% from the West Pacific Tropics (Pearl River Basin, 2009), and 32.5% from the South Asia Monsoon (Pearl River Basin, 1985).

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive quantification of the role of ARs in Chinese river basins, addressing a previously insufficiently quantified aspect.
• Identifies a critical south-to-north contrast and temporal shifts (post-1980s) in AR characteristics and their hydrological impacts across China.
• Quantifies basin-specific contributions of ARs to precipitation, extreme precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture.
• Traces dominant moisture sources during AR-driven floods, offering insights into regional atmospheric teleconnections.
• The findings are valuable for informing flood risk management and water security planning in a changing climate.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Ayantobo2025Atmospheric,
  author = {Ayantobo, Olusola O. and Zhang, Shengjun and Wei, Jing and Xing, Yufei},
  title = {Atmospheric Rivers Sustain and Reshape Hydrological Responses Across Chinese River Basins},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007153},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007153}
}