Chen et al. (2025) Do Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Forecasts Improve Simultaneously With Intensity Forecasts?

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-14
• Authors: Jie Chen, Kun Gao, Lucas Harris, Timothy Marchok
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl115875

Research Groups

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and outer size forecast performance of five NOAA numerical models for 15 North Atlantic hurricanes from 2020 to 2022, revealing little correlation between intensity and size forecast accuracy, with higher resolution improving intensity but not size forecasts, and initial storm size influencing size prediction challenges.

Objective

• To evaluate the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and outer size forecast performance of five numerical models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for North Atlantic hurricanes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North Atlantic basin (focusing on tropical cyclones).
• Temporal Scale: 2020 to 2022, covering 15 representative North Atlantic hurricanes.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Five unspecified numerical models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
• Data sources: Numerical model forecasts; evaluation against implied observational data (not explicitly detailed in the abstract).

Main Results

• There is little correlation between tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and outer size forecast accuracy.
• Higher-resolution models demonstrate superior performance in intensity prediction compared to coarser-resolution models.
• Model resolution does not significantly affect the accuracy of outer size forecasts.
• The initial outer size of a storm may significantly influence the accuracy of its outer size forecast, with initially larger storms potentially presenting greater challenges for accurate prediction.

Contributions

• Provides new insights into the complex relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) size and intensity forecasting.
• Highlights the critical need to understand how environmental factors influence size forecasts.
• Emphasizes the connection between environmental factors, model resolution, and model configuration in TC size forecasting.

Funding

• Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Chen2025Do,
  author = {Chen, Jie and Gao, Kun and Harris, Lucas and Marchok, Timothy},
  title = {Do Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Forecasts Improve Simultaneously With Intensity Forecasts?},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl115875},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl115875}
}