Min et al. (2025) A Diachronic Assessment of Advances in Seasonal Forecasting: Evolution of the APCC Multi‐Model Ensemble Prediction System Over the Last Two Decades

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Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-03
• Authors: Young‐Mi Min, Chang‐Mook Lim, Jinho Yoo, Hyung‐Jin Kim, Vladimir N. Kryjov, Da-Eun Jeong, Apiradee Lim, Suryun Ham, Mingyue Chen, Yi Xiao, Normand Gagnon, Ryan Muncaster, Pang‐Yen Liu, Andrea Borrelli, Hee‐Sook Ji, Johan Lee, Sera Jo, D. B. Kiktev, M. A. Tolstykh, V. A. Matyugin, Peter McLean, Andrea Molod
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116416

Research Groups

• APEC Climate Center (APCC)

Short Summary

This study provides a diachronic assessment of the APCC Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system since 2005, demonstrating a 34% increase in global forecast skill.

Objective

• To evaluate the evolution of the APCC MME system, specifically analyzing the impact of operational model transitions on global seasonal climate prediction skill.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: 2005 to present (approximately 20 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) integrating over 60 versions of dynamical climate models.
• Data sources: Long-range forecasts contributed by 21 institutions across 11 countries.

Main Results

• Global forecast skill improved by 34% over the assessment period.
• Significant prediction challenges remain for precipitation over land areas in the northern extratropics.
• The "spring predictability barrier" continues to be a persistent obstacle in seasonal forecasting.
• Improvements are attributed to model innovation, increased model diversity, and international collaboration.

Contributions

• This is the first diachronic study of the APCC MME system, offering a foundational analysis of how the evolution of climate modeling and ensemble diversity contributes to improved seasonal prediction.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Min2025Diachronic,
  author = {Min, Young‐Mi and Lim, Chang‐Mook and Yoo, Jinho and Kim, Hyung‐Jin and Kryjov, Vladimir N. and Jeong, Da-Eun and Lim, Apiradee and Ham, Suryun and Chen, Mingyue and Xiao, Yi and Gagnon, Normand and Muncaster, Ryan and Liu, Pang‐Yen and Borrelli, Andrea and Ji, Hee‐Sook and Lee, Johan and Jo, Sera and Kiktev, D. B. and Tolstykh, M. A. and Matyugin, V. A. and McLean, Peter and Molod, Andrea},
  title = {A Diachronic Assessment of Advances in Seasonal Forecasting: Evolution of the APCC Multi‐Model Ensemble Prediction System Over the Last Two Decades},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl116416},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116416}
}