Liu et al. (2025) Time of Emergence of Record‐Shattering Compound Heatwave‐Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Socio‐Economic Exposures

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Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-08-17
• Authors: Jiahe Liu, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, Andrew D. King
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116884

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the global time of emergence (ToE) for record-shattering compound heatwave-extreme precipitation events (CHEPs) and assesses the associated socio-economic risks. It finds that while the majority of global areas will experience these events by 2100, the poorest regions face the most significant population and GDP exposures.

Objective

• To quantify the time of emergence (ToE) of record-shattering compound heatwave-extreme precipitation events (CHEPs) on a global scale and evaluate the resulting exposure of population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: 21st century (up to 2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multiple large ensembles (climate models) utilizing the SSP2-4.5 scenario.
• Data sources: Climate ensemble projections, GDP data, and population data.

Main Results

• Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, 71% of global areas are projected to experience the emergence of record-shattering CHEP frequency by 2100, whereas less than 10% will do so by 2030.
• Water-limited regions are less likely to show signs of ToE before 2100.
• There is a significant upward trend in socio-economic exposure throughout the century, with the most widespread impacts occurring in the poorest regions by the late 21st century.

Contributions

• This research provides the first global analysis of the time of emergence for record-shattering CHEPs and links these climatic shifts to socio-economic vulnerability (GDP and population), highlighting the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Liu2025Time,
  author = {Liu, Jiahe and Chen, Jie and Yin, Jiabo and King, Andrew D.},
  title = {Time of Emergence of Record‐Shattering Compound Heatwave‐Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Socio‐Economic Exposures},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl116884},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116884}
}