Sodhi et al. (2025) Limits to the Practical Predictability of Convective‐Scale Forecast Systems With World‐Class Data Assimilation

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-16
• Authors: Jagdeep Singh Sodhi, Frédéric Fabry
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl117816

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the uncertainty and error growth in two advanced radar data assimilation systems for thunderstorm forecasting, revealing significant remaining uncertainty in unobserved atmospheric properties and concluding that substantial new measurement technologies or radical ideas are necessary for accurate forecasts.

Objective

• To determine the current proximity to accurately forecasting thunderstorms.
• To identify what additional information would be required to achieve accurate thunderstorm forecasting.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Implied mesoscale to convective scale (thunderstorms).
• Temporal Scale: Short-range forecasting to nowcasting (radar data assimilated every 30 seconds), aiming to simulate the complete lifetime of a thunderstorm (typically hours).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Two unspecified "state-of-the-art prediction systems" based on radar data assimilation.
• Data sources: Radar data, "all available measurements," "limited direct measurements."

Main Results

• Considerable uncertainty remains in unobserved atmospheric properties (e.g., temperature, humidity) even with state-of-the-art assimilation systems.
• Limited improvement in forecast accuracy can be expected from current methods due to scarce direct measurements and the near-full exploitation of covariance-based information.
• Current forecast accuracy is insufficient to properly simulate the complete lifetime of a thunderstorm, thereby limiting the accuracy and value of threat forecasting.

Contributions

• Quantifies the remaining uncertainty and error growth in state-of-the-art radar-based thunderstorm prediction systems.
• Identifies fundamental limitations of current data assimilation approaches for thunderstorm forecasting, particularly regarding unobserved atmospheric properties.
• Highlights the critical need for massive investment in new measurement technologies or radically new conceptual approaches to achieve significant improvements in thunderstorm forecast accuracy.

Funding

Not mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Sodhi2025Limits,
  author = {Sodhi, Jagdeep Singh and Fabry, Frédéric},
  title = {Limits to the Practical Predictability of Convective‐Scale Forecast Systems With World‐Class Data Assimilation},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl117816},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117816}
}