Polonik et al. (2025) Emulation of the Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Emissions From High‐ and Low‐Income Nations

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-09
• Authors: Pascal Polonik, Jennifer Burney, Katharine Ricke
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl117841

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study uses a large ensemble climate model to identify spatiotemporal temperature changes due to greenhouse gases and aerosols from different economic regions, revealing that non-OECD aerosol emissions could mask over 20% of greenhouse gas-induced warming for a significant global population by 2050.

Objective

• To identify and predict the heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature changes, specifically parsing the distinct climate impacts of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols originating from high-income (OECD) and developing (non-OECD) economies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on regional impacts and source regions (OECD versus non-OECD).
• Temporal Scale: Future projections up to the year 2050.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CESM2 (Community Earth System Model, version 2) single-forcing large ensemble.
• Data sources: Climate model simulations (CESM2 single-forcing large ensemble output).

Main Results

• Aerosol emissions originating from non-OECD regions are projected to mask more than 20% of greenhouse gas-induced warming for over 40% of the global population by the year 2050.

Contributions

• Provides a refined understanding of regional climate impacts by distinguishing the spatiotemporal temperature changes caused by greenhouse gases and aerosols from different economic regions (OECD versus non-OECD).
• Demonstrates a method to leverage temporal offsets in aerosol emissions to parse climate impacts, potentially reducing computational barriers for including regional impacts in simplified climate models.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Polonik2025Emulation,
  author = {Polonik, Pascal and Burney, Jennifer and Ricke, Katharine},
  title = {Emulation of the Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Emissions From High‐ and Low‐Income Nations},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl117841},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117841}
}