Dai et al. (2025) Human Influence on Changes in Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Across Different Land Regions

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-15
• Authors: Yanhui Dai, Qiaohong Sun, Botao Zhou, Yan Li, Wenxin Xie, Liping Li, Zhiwei Zhu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl117875

Research Groups

Not available in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study conducted a detection and attribution analysis of extreme precipitation changes across the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from 1950 to 2018, finding significant intensification in the Northern Hemisphere driven over 70% by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, while changes in the Southern Hemisphere were more regionally and seasonally complex.

Objective

• To detect and attribute changes in extreme precipitation at regional and seasonal scales across the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from 1950 to 2018.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with specific focus on the Northern Hemisphere (especially mid-to-high latitudes), Southern Hemisphere, and regionally in southwestern and southern South America.
• Temporal Scale: 1950–2018 (69 years), analyzed across all four seasons (December-January-February (DJF), June-July-August (JJA), and other seasons).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models (general mention).
• Data sources: Observations, climate models, updated optimal fingerprinting method.

Main Results

• Extreme precipitation intensified significantly in all four seasons across the Northern Hemisphere during 1950–2018, particularly in mid-to-high latitudes.
• Anthropogenic greenhouse gases drove over 70% of the observed extreme precipitation trend in the Northern Hemisphere.
• A weaker increase in extreme precipitation was observed in June-July-August (JJA) compared to colder seasons in the Northern Hemisphere.
• In the Southern Hemisphere, changes were more regionally and seasonally dependent, with a decreasing trend in JJA and increases in other seasons, though confidence is limited by sparse observational data.
• Extreme precipitation significantly decreased in southwestern and southern South America during December-January-February (DJF), largely attributed to combined external forcing.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive detection and attribution analysis of extreme precipitation changes across both Northern and Southern Hemispheres at seasonal and regional scales.
• Quantifies the significant role of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in driving extreme precipitation intensification in the Northern Hemisphere.
• Highlights the complex, uneven, and regionally/seasonally dependent nature of extreme precipitation changes globally, including areas of decrease.

Funding

Not available in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dai2025Human,
  author = {Dai, Yanhui and Sun, Qiaohong and Zhou, Botao and Li, Yan and Xie, Wenxin and Li, Liping and Zhu, Zhiwei},
  title = {Human Influence on Changes in Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Across Different Land Regions},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl117875},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117875}
}