Huang et al. (2025) ENSO's Impacts on Southeastern Australia's Future Rainfall Risk

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-17
• Authors: Ashley T. Huang, Nicola Maher, Shayne McGregor
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118673

Research Groups

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Short Summary

This study assesses the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-rainfall relationship in large ensembles over the Murray-Darling Basin and quantifies projected rainfall risk using a novel framework. It finds that while El Niño-related rainfall shows no prominent change, La Niña-driven rainfall impacts, characterized by increased variability and higher amounts, may worsen under a warming climate.

Objective

• To assess the ENSO-rainfall relationship for 10 single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) over the Murray-Darling Basin.
• To apply a novel Fraction of Attributable Risk framework to quantify the projected rainfall risk in this region, specifically for the five LEs that exhibit the same ENSO-rainfall relationship as observations.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Murray-Darling Basin, southeastern Australia.
• Temporal Scale: ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña, neutral phases); future projections under a warming climate (implying multi-decadal to centennial scale for climate change impacts).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 10 single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs).
• Data sources: Observational data (for comparison with LEs), model outputs from the large ensembles.

Main Results

• No prominent change was observed in El Niño-related rainfall amount or its variability in the large ensembles.
• Rainfall variability increases during both La Niña and neutral phases.
• Three out of five selected LEs project an increase in rainfall risk during La Niña events.
• This projected increase in La Niña rainfall risk is attributed to both greater rainfall variability and higher amounts of rainfall.
• The findings suggest that La Niña-driven rainfall impacts may worsen under a warming climate.

Contributions

• First assessment of the ENSO-rainfall relationship using 10 single model initial-condition large ensembles over the Murray-Darling Basin.
• Introduction and application of a novel Fraction of Attributable Risk framework to quantify projected rainfall risk.
• Quantification of the potential worsening of La Niña-driven rainfall impacts under a warming climate, highlighting increased variability and amounts.

Funding

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Citation

@article{Huang2025ENSOs,
  author = {Huang, Ashley T. and Maher, Nicola and McGregor, Shayne},
  title = {ENSO's Impacts on Southeastern Australia's Future Rainfall Risk},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl118673},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118673}
}