Xu et al. (2025) Stochastic Resonance Elucidates the Emergence and Periodicity Transition of Glacial Cycles

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-28
• Authors: Tian Xu, Gabriel Katul, Shineng Hu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118862

Research Groups

[Not specified in abstract]

Short Summary

This study proposes a stochastic resonance model to resolve the emergence and intensification of glacial cycles (41-kyr to 100-kyr periods) in the Pliocene-Pleistocene. It suggests that non-stationary greenhouse gas concentrations and a noise component modulated by orbital variations drive these transitions, with weakened noise favoring the 100-kyr cycle.

Objective

• To propose a stochastic resonance model that resolves the emergence of 41-kyr glacial cycles after the Pliocene and their intensification to 100-kyr cycles in the mid-Pleistocene, addressing the issues of insufficient orbital forcing and the absence of significant orbital changes at these transitions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global (Earth's climate system)
• Temporal Scale: Pliocene-Pleistocene epochs (millions of years), focusing on 41-kiloyear and 100-kiloyear glacial cycles.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Stochastic resonance model
• Data sources: Conceptual model; implicitly based on paleoclimate records of glacial cycle periods, Earth's orbital variations, and past greenhouse gas concentrations.

Main Results

• The proposed stochastic resonance model provides a unified explanation for the emergence of 41-kiloyear glacial cycles after the Pliocene and their intensification to 100-kiloyear cycles in the mid-Pleistocene.
• Earth's radiative imbalance, modulated by non-stationary greenhouse gas concentrations, leads to distinct persisting warm (inter-glacial) and colder (glacial) states exclusively in the Pleistocene.
• A noise component, encoding volcanic eruptions and short-term climate variations, acts to trigger glacial-interglacial jumps, which are further modulated by periodic orbital variations.
• The mid-Pleistocene transition to the 100-kiloyear world is shown to be favored by a weakened noise amplitude.
• This formulation offers a unified view of Pliocene-Pleistocene climate evolution, extendable to hothouse and snowball climates.

Contributions

• Proposes a novel stochastic resonance model that offers a unified explanation for the emergence and intensification of glacial cycles, addressing the long-standing issues of insufficient orbital forcing and the lack of significant orbital changes at key transitions.
• Identifies the critical roles of non-stationary greenhouse gas concentrations and a noise component (representing volcanic eruptions and short-term climate variations) as modulators and triggers for glacial-interglacial transitions.
• Pinpoints a weakened noise amplitude as a key factor favoring the mid-Pleistocene transition to the 100-kiloyear glacial cycle.
• Provides a framework that can be extended to understand other extreme climate states, such as hothouse and snowball Earth conditions.

Funding

[Not specified in abstract]

Citation

@article{Xu2025Stochastic,
  author = {Xu, Tian and Katul, Gabriel and Hu, Shineng},
  title = {Stochastic Resonance Elucidates the Emergence and Periodicity Transition of Glacial Cycles},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl118862},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118862}
}