Wang et al. (2025) Advancing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Simulation and Projection With Eddy‐Resolving Climate Models

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-31
• Authors: Baiping Wang, Xiaohui Ma, Weiwei Ma, Lixin Wu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118880

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study demonstrates that eddy-resolving high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations accurately capture historical Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (TCR) due to improved TC upward motion. Under the RCP8.5 warming scenario, HR CESM projects a significantly higher TCR increase rate (∼12.0% K⁻¹) exceeding Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, in contrast to non-eddy-resolving models which substantially underestimate both historical and projected TCR increases.

Objective

• To assess the capability of eddy-resolving high-resolution climate models (specifically HR CESM) to accurately simulate Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (TCR) compared to observations and non-eddy-resolving models.
• To project future changes in TCR under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) warming scenario using HR CESM and compare these projections with those from non-eddy-resolving models, particularly in relation to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Eddy-resolving high-resolution, focusing on tropical cyclone inner-core dynamical structures.
• Temporal Scale: Historical simulations and future climate projections under a warming scenario (RCP8.5).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Community Earth System Model (CESM) in eddy-resolving high-resolution (HR) configuration, compared against non-eddy-resolving models.
• Data sources: Observations (for comparison with simulated TCR).

Main Results

• Simulated TCR from HR CESM closely aligns with observations, primarily due to improved representation of TC upward motion.
• Non-eddy-resolving models substantially underestimate historical TCR (by more than 50%).
• Under the RCP8.5 warming scenario, projected TCR increases in non-eddy-resolving models are only 15%–50% of those projected by HR CESM, likely due to their large historical TCR biases.
• The projected TCR fractional increase by non-eddy-resolving models remains comparable to or below the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) scaling, attributed to suppressed TC upward motion.
• HR CESM projects a much larger TCR increase rate (approximately 12.0% K⁻¹), which exceeds the C-C rate and is driven by a strengthened TC upward motion.

Contributions

• Highlights the critical importance of eddy-resolving high-resolution climate models for accurate simulation and projection of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (TCR).
• Quantifies the significant underestimation of historical and future TCR by current non-eddy-resolving climate models, emphasizing their limitations for hydrological extreme projections.
• Provides evidence that high-resolution models project TCR increases exceeding Clausius-Clapeyron scaling under warming, linking this enhancement to improved representation of TC upward motion.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Wang2025Advancing,
  author = {Wang, Baiping and Ma, Xiaohui and Ma, Weiwei and Wu, Lixin},
  title = {Advancing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Simulation and Projection With Eddy‐Resolving Climate Models},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl118880},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118880}
}