Nelli et al. (2025) Drivers and Trends of Summertime Convection Over the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-27
• Authors: Narendra Nelli, Diana Francis, Ricardo Fonseca, Luca Delle Monache, Abdulla Al Mandous
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118960

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study examines summertime convection in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula using observations, reanalysis, and climate projections, revealing a significant increase in convective events driven by regional warming and boundary layer instability, with projections indicating a continued positive trend.

Objective

• To examine summertime convection in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula using satellite observations, reanalysis fields, and climate change projections.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southeastern Arabian Peninsula
• Temporal Scale: Summertime (peak convection during July and August); observed trends from 2000 to 2024; climate change projections for 2015–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA-5 reanalysis; climate change projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios.
• Data sources: Satellite observations; ERA-5 reanalysis fields.

Main Results

• Peak convection occurs during July and August, driven by intense surface heating, moisture convergence, and sea-breeze dynamics.
• K-means cluster analysis identified the Madden-Julian Oscillation, breaks in the South Asian summer monsoon, and a decaying Arabian heat low as primary atmospheric processes governing convective events.
• Observed trends show a significant increase of approximately 1.42 convective days per year from 2000 to 2024, consistent with regional warming and enhanced boundary layer instability.
• Climate change projections confirm this positive trend for 2015–2100, with the SSP5–8.5 scenario indicating increases by 0.038 days per year.
• These findings have significant implications for water management and flash-flood risk mitigation strategies in the region.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of summertime convection in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula.
• Identifies key atmospheric processes governing convective events in this climatologically sensitive region.
• Quantifies observed and projected trends in convective activity, linking them to regional warming and boundary layer instability.
• Highlights critical implications for regional water management and flash-flood risk mitigation strategies.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Nelli2025Drivers,
  author = {Nelli, Narendra and Francis, Diana and Fonseca, Ricardo and Monache, Luca Delle and Mandous, Abdulla Al},
  title = {Drivers and Trends of Summertime Convection Over the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl118960},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118960}
}