Ma et al. (2025) Severe 2023/2024 Winter Subseasonal Weather Extremes Over Eastern China: Two Pathways of ENSO Impacts

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-22
• Authors: Shuangmei Ma, Congwen Zhu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl119268

Research Groups

Not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

The study attributes the 2023/2024 winter cold extremes, heavy snowfall, and freezing rain in eastern China to two distinct pathways of El Niño's influence, modulated by enhanced atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation. These pathways involve El Niño's impact on the North Atlantic jet stream and the western North Pacific anticyclone, reinforcing cold-air circulation and enhancing moisture transport, respectively.

Objective

• To understand and attribute the severe cold-wet weather events (cold extremes, heavy snowfall, freezing rain) experienced in eastern China during the 2023/2024 winter, particularly in the context of enhanced atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), to the influence of El Niño.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Eastern China, North Atlantic, Siberia, western North Pacific.
• Temporal Scale: 2023/2024 winter, intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), seasonal background flow, most El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified in the abstract.
• Data sources: Not specified in the abstract, but implies analysis of atmospheric circulation regimes and associated weather events.

Main Results

• Severe cold-wet events in eastern China during the 2023/2024 winter were attributed to two pathways of El Niño's influence, modulated by enhanced atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).
• Pathway 1 (Strong ISO cold events): El Niño strengthened, extended eastward, and increased the southwest–northeast tilt of the North Atlantic (NA) jet stream. This modulated the NA jet stream, reinforcing a cold-air circulation regime via interactions between the seasonal background flow and ISO perturbations, leading to an amplified Siberian High and strong ISO cold events.
• Pathway 2 (Freezing rain): El Niño strengthened the western North Pacific anticyclone, which enhanced moisture transport, contributing to freezing rain formation.
• These two pathways of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts are observed in most ENSO years.

Contributions

• Identifies and elucidates two distinct atmospheric pathways through which El Niño influences extreme cold-wet events in eastern China.
• Highlights the crucial role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as an important source for subseasonal forecasting of extreme cold-wet events in China.
• Provides a mechanistic understanding of the 2023/2024 winter cold extremes in eastern China.

Funding

Not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{Ma2025Severe,
  author = {Ma, Shuangmei and Zhu, Congwen},
  title = {Severe 2023/2024 Winter Subseasonal Weather Extremes Over Eastern China: Two Pathways of ENSO Impacts},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl119268},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119268}
}