Du et al. (2025) Quantile‐Based Fire Weather Index Better Informs Detection and Variability of Wildfire Risks in China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-24
• Authors: Jizeng Du, Dan Li, Hengfei Zhang, Hong Liu, Yang Chen
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd043406

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study developed a quantile-based Fire Weather Index (QFWI) for China, demonstrating its superior accuracy in indicating wildfire occurrences compared to the standard FWI. It revealed that China's wildfire risks exhibit inter-decadal variability, decreasing pre-1990 due to reduced wind speed and increasing post-1990 primarily due to rising temperature and decreasing humidity, signaling heightened future risks.

Objective

• To design a quantile-based Fire Weather Index (QFWI) that accurately indicates wildfire occurrences across China.
• To propose a classification scheme for low-, medium-, and high-fire dangers in China based on QFWI.
• To examine the historical variability of wildfire dangers in China and identify modulating climate variables.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale for China, with regional focus on southwest and humid southern China.
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis from 1961 to present, with projections into future decades, focusing on inter-decadal variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Quantile-based Fire Weather Index (QFWI), a modification of the standard Fire Weather Index (FWI) system.
• Data sources: Not explicitly detailed in abstract, but includes wildfire occurrences, burned areas, and climate variables such as daily maximum wind speed, daily maximum air temperature, and daily minimum relative humidity.

Main Results

• The developed QFWI is more accurate than the standard FWI in indicating wildfire occurrences across China.
• China's wildfire risks did not increase monotonically with warming but showed significant inter-decadal variability modulated by multiple climate variables.
• From 1961 to 1990, high-risk days decreased at an average rate of -0.98 ± 0.71 days per year, primarily driven by a slowdown of daily maximum wind speed.
• After 1990, broad areas of China experienced significant increases in high-risk days (0.64 ± 0.54 days per year), particularly in southwest China, mainly attributed to warming daily maximum air temperature and drying daily minimum relative humidity.
• The combination of increasingly favorable weather conditions and continuous fuel accumulation from massive afforestation efforts signals heightened wildfire risks for future decades, even in humid southern China.

Contributions

• Introduction of the QFWI, a novel and more accurate wildfire danger index specifically tailored for China.
• Development of a robust fire danger classification scheme for China based on the QFWI.
• Identification of the non-monotonic, inter-decadal variability of wildfire risks in China, challenging simpler assumptions about climate change impacts.
• Elucidation of the specific climate drivers (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity) responsible for changes in wildfire risk during different historical periods.
• Highlighting the alarming combined effect of climate change and land-use practices (afforestation) on future wildfire risks across China, including humid regions.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Du2025QuantileBased,
  author = {Du, Jizeng and Li, Dan and Zhang, Hengfei and Liu, Hong and Chen, Yang},
  title = {Quantile‐Based Fire Weather Index Better Informs Detection and Variability of Wildfire Risks in China},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd043406},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043406}
}